R4 THE LONGINES HONG KONG VASE (G1)

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Sha Tin (M27) - Sunday, 9 December 2018

14:00 HK TIME

summary


The Japanese entrant CROCOSMIA might be able to dictate the speed on his terms and generally speaking, on pace runners have a pretty good record in the Vase (Highland Reel and Satono Crown in recent editions). Andre Fabre’s WALDGEIST looks the one to beat based on his overall form from this season, most notably running fourth to Enable in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The only concern I would have for him is that it is end of a long season and one could argue the Arc was his main aim, so he might be close to being at the end of his preparation. However, he is trained by France’s leading trainer (28 times) and having won this race twice in the past I will place some faith in the fact he has one more good run in him.  Sir Michael Stoute is another trainer who has tasted success in this race, although not for some time (Daliapour 2000). Nonetheless, MIRAGE DANCER by all accounts has arrived well and his form this year has progressed nicely, and he obviously had this race in mind some time ago considering he hasn’t competed since late September. This is a step up again and his hardest test to date, but he can figure in the finish. There will probably be good market support for LYS GRACIEUX with the booking of Joao Moreira. The Magic Man was aboard when she defeated Crocosmia in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup last month and she effectively goes in to this event on her fourth run this preparation. The best value chance in this event would be PRINCE OF ARRAN who ran a game third in the Melbourne Cup this year. The little freshen-up and being back to 2400m bodes well for this galloper and considering the Melbourne Cup form has stood up very well in recent years (Dunaden and Americain), I am quietly confident he can run well at good odds. Outside of those four, PAKISTAN STAR had excuses on his last outing but arguably hasn’t been in the best of form this season. He will however have Buick back on board and the last time the two combined he won at this level. As far as betting is concerned in this event, Pakistan Star might come up short on the tote and there might be value around a couple of Internationals. Win bets on Waldgeist and Mirage Dancer as well as a place bet on Prince Of Arran could be good plays.

selections


1 WALDGEIST

(rp – $4.50)

5th

5 MIRAGE DANCER

(rp – $6.50)

14th

10 LYS GRACEIUX

(rp – $7.50)

2nd @ $2.25p

8 PRINCE OF ARRAN

(rp – $20.00)

8th

2 PAKISTAN STAR

(rp – $9.00)

6th

strategy


1 WALDGEIST

WIN (small units)

5 MIRAGE DANCER

WIN (small units)

8 PRINCE OF ARRAN

PLACE (small units)

speed


The pace should be GOOD through the running of the Vase with CROCOSMIA the likely pacesetter from SALOUEN, ROSTROPOVICH and PAKISTAN STAR positioning close by. WALDGEIST maps very well.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)