R8 LONGINES INTERNATIONAL JOCKEYS’ CHAMPIONSHIP HCP

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Happy Valley (M26) - Wednesday, 5 December 2018

22:10 HK TIME

summary


This is a difficult race. As far as the pace is concerned, I expect a good tempo without being too quick and that might assist PLANET STAR (Ho) who is now third-up this season. He has had clear excuses on both runs this preparation where the pace has been brutal on-speed and he has been found wanting late. I am expecting him to get an easier time here and he could take some running down. VIGOR FAME (Purton) comes through the same form line (Race160 – where Flying Quest and Har Har Heart have proven subsequent winners) and he might improve with the crossover noseband going on. Talking of gear changes, LUCKY GIRL (Bowman) has the blinkers removed for his fourth run this preparation but would need to lift a touch on his last effort to win here, but he could fill a minor spot. BEAUTY DAY (Y.Take) is another on-pace runner and comes through some decent form races this season. He might appreciate the drop back to a mile and can run well. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING (Teetan) has been in good form this preparation and maps nicely from gate 1. He is up in grade this time but drops 5kg in weight, which has to help. BANK ON RED can be forgiven for his last run and his form prior was sound, while THE JUDGE (10;2-3-0) has good form over the course and distance and will appreciate coming back to HV. This is clearly the toughest race of the series and one of the tougher races of the night. From a betting perspective I wouldn’t be outlaying much at all.

selections


8 PLANET STAR

(rp – $5.00)

5th

12 BEAUTY DAY

(rp – $6.00)

9th

10 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING

(rp – $6.00)

11th

9 VIGOR FAME

(rp – $8.00)

7th

6 BANK ON RED

(rp – $9.00)

2nd @ $1.95p

3 THE JUDGE

(rp – $14.00)

8th

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

use prices accordingly

IJC CHALLENGE FORECAST


Vincent HO

12 POINTS

Yutaka TAKE

6 POINTS

Karis TEETAN

4 POINTS

speed


BEAUTY DAY can lead this event with THUNDER STOMP and PLANET STAR working across from their draws to sit handy to the speed. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING should be able to secure one of the runs of the race.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)