R6 IRELAND HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M26) - Wednesday, 5 December 2018

21:10 HK TIME

summary


COUNTRY STAR will be a well-found favourite in this event and he deserves to be the top-elect, but probably not as short as he will be in the market. Settling close to a fast tempo last time dulled his finish and being drawn wide here should mean he’s ridden a touch more conservatively and that could suit him and he might bounce back. That said it is a messy “race shape” that presents here and I wouldn’t want to take even money or less about Country Star to win. HAPPY TIME meets him 1.5kg better for a length the last time they met, but he has drawn the outside gate, which will make it tougher. That said there’s a significant disparity between the two horses price-wise that really shouldn’t be as great. There might be one to speculate on at big odds in the form of JUST NOT LISTENING. His form this season is excellent, it is just that it has been on the all-weather track. The public opinion will be he can’t transfer it to the Happy Valley turf, and that might be true, but it could also be true that he is a genuinely improved horse this term who rates well-enough to be a contender here. He will be a big price and might be worth a small play. There’s not much else to see here. I can’t and won’t steer you into a short quote on Country Star, but do as you please, he’s the horse to beat. Just Not Listening is worth a small each way, with the emphasis being on the place.

selections


3 COUNTRY STAR

(rp – $2.40)

1st @ $1.95 & $1.15

8 HAPPY TIME

(rp – $9.00)

8th

11 JUST NOT LISTENING

(rp – $14.00)

2nd @ $4.50p (quinella with 3 @ $16.80)

strategy


11 JUST NOT LISTENING

WIN & PLACE (e.g. 0.5 x 1.5)

speed


There should be decent speed here with HARBOUR ALERT and JUST NOT LISTENING the main protagonists. WONDERFUL JOURNEY is drawn to work into the leading few with HAPPY TIME, BLOCKER DEE and EIGHTY EIGHTY.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)