R4 LONGINES INTERNATIONAL JOCKEYS’ CHAMPIONSHIP HCP

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Happy Valley (M26) - Wednesday, 5 December 2018

20:10 HK TIME

summary


This is an even race and there are a number of runners that could take up the running although MR RIGHT (Bowman), WINNING SUPREME (Lemaire), SUPER EIGHTEEN (Ho) and LUCKY LUCKY (Take) look the most likely to contest the early lead. The low draw favours Mr Right who has an excellent record over the course and distance (29:6-5-1) with all of his six career wins coming over the minimum trip at the city venue. Mr Right finished fourth to Gentle Breeze in Race 175, with GENERAL IRON (third), SPECIAL STARS (fifth), LUNAR ZEPHYR (seventh), LUCKY LUCKY (10th) and FLYING NOBLE (11th). Consequently this is a key form reference for this event. General Iron ran well there and with Zac Purton on board from a low draw in a race where he should get the required tempo this ageing galloper can post some points for Purton. It is also encouraging that he has only had two starts in this grade for a win and a third. There is no question Special Stars has far more upside than his rivals here, but from the outside draw he is either going to concede or cover ground and that makes him more of a place chance. Nonetheless, the manner in which he hit the line on his debut was most encouraging. Mr Right maps nicely, has proven consistent and should be there for a fair way. He can figure in the finish as well. Super Eighteen has drawn wide but possesses good gate speed and his chances might hinge on how hard he has to work in the early stages. ROYAL RACER is another interesting entry, having his second career start and his first for Caspar Fownes. He took the time to take him to Happy Valley for a turf trial recently where he closed quite stylishly and although he might prefer a touch more ground; he looks to have more potential than most. Any market support should be an additional good indicator.

As far as the IJC Challenge is concerned, Purton, Bowman, Keane, Castellano and Ho are the main chances of picking up points as I see it. The other two that might be able to sneak some minor points are Moore (Lunar Zephyr-might get a soft run on the back of the speed).

selections


1 GENERAL IRON

(rp – $4.50)

5th

3 MR RIGHT

(rp – $5.00)

6th

8 SPECIAL STARS

(rp – $8.00)

1st @ $4.60 & $2.00 ($8.00 best corporate)

7 ROYAL RACER

(rp – $7.50)

12th

4 SUPER EIGHTEEN

(rp – $9.50)

9th

strategy


1 GENERAL IRON

WIN (small units)

7 ROYAL RACER

WIN (small units)

ijc challenge forecast


Zac PURTON

12 POINTS

Hugh BOWMAN

6 POINTS

Colin KEANE

4 POINTS

speed


I expect the pace to be GOOD here with MR RIGHT and SUPER EIGHTEEN contesting the lead from WINNING SUPREME and LUCKY LUCKY. LUNAR ZEPHYR maps to get a good position behind the main speed.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)