R3 JAPAN HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M26) - Wednesday, 5 December 2018

19:30 HK TIME

summary


This is another wide-open race. That being said, SPLIT OF A SECOND looks to be a solid outlay opportunity here at reasonable odds. He posted the eighth-best final-400m (22.60) of the day on his way to victory over the course and distance on October 18 (Race 102) and clearly has more upside than most in this line up. The barrier is far from ideal for Split Of A Second and he will need the race run to suit, but at least the draw looks to have put the market off somewhat and he will be a bigger price than he should be. HARD PROMISE comes through a strong race where he faded into fifth, but that might be good enough to take some beating here, although he is yet to win locally from 14 starts. A positive is that he maps to receive one of the best runs in the race on or just behind the main speed. The other interesting runner is NABOO STAR who is having his second career start. He missed the jump noticeably on debut when well-supported in the market but managed to close his race off well enough. He clearly has ability and the booking of Purton is noteworthy. During his recent trial he appeared to resent the kickback but also displayed ability and he wouldn’t have to be too good to win this one. GOUTEN OF GARO has been a touch unlucky his last couple of starts, while DOLLAR REWARD is going okay and can hit the frame. At the odds though I’m happy that Split Of A Second is a small each way outlay and Naboo Star might be worth a small bet too as cover, although his issue is where he might get to in the running.

selections


3 SPLIT OF A SECOND

(rp – $6.50)

1st @ $17.50 & $5.50

8 NABOO STAR

(rp – $8.00)

7th

2 HARD PROMISE

(rp – $6.00)

2nd @ $1.65 (quinella with 3 @ $37.40)

10 DOLLAR REWARD

(rp – $7.50)

3rd @ $1.95 (trifecta/tierce with 3 & 2 @ $485.20)

strategy


3 SPLIT OF A SECOND

WIN & PLACE (1.5 x 3)

speed


A genuine pace looks likely here with GOOD COMPANION and BORNTOACHIEVE the potential leaders here from HARD PROMISE. ENERGETIC CLASS shapes to get an economical run just off the speed alongside PERFECT TO PLAY.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)