best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M26) - Wednesday, 5 December 2018
30 units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 5
10 GLORY STAR (rp – $3.00)
WIN (7 units)
7 CLEAR CHOICE (rp – $5.00)
WIN (3 units)
GLORY STAR is the best of the evening and he looks a very big over off early markets. He rated very highly when winning his last start and if he repeats that performance he’ll win. Maybe some are put off by the wide draw but he has the traits that’ll help him overcome that. CLEAR CHOICE is another that looks too big a price. He doesn’t map so well, but is in good form and can upset the others with luck.
Result: 1st @ $7.00 best corporate (+42 units) + 5th (-3 units) -> (+39 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAY
RACE 9
5 RED WARRIOR (rp – $3.50)
WIN (6 units)
7 GIANT TURTLE (rp – $8.00)
WIN (2 units)
RED WARRIOR is a talented and progressive young stayer. The northern hemisphere-bred three-year-old didn’t have all favours last start, but can bounce back off the right run in the race tonight to be hard to beat. GIANT TURTLE is capable of leading all the way and appears likely to have a largely uncontested time up front.
Result: 2nd (-6 units) + 7th (-2 units) -> (-8 units)
best each way
RACE 7
11 FORMULA GALORE (rp – $4.50)
WIN (2.5 units) PLACE (5 units)
The favourite All You Know is the horse to beat here but seems very short off my ratings. FORMULA GALORE is a big price and with any luck in the running can run a lot better than market expectation. The second time over this track and distance for the preparation is a good formula for him to run well here.
Result: 8th (-2.5 units)(-5 units) -> (-7.5 units)
Next best each way
RACE 3
3 SPLIT OF A SECOND (rp – $6.50)
WIN (1.5 units) PLACE (3 units)
For “Poon train” followers SPLIT OF A SECOND is a decent over and can run well even though he’s drawn barrier 11. He’s in good form and there should be sufficient pace in the race for him to be able to settle back early and come with a late run at them down centre-track.
1st @ $17.50 & $5.50 (+24.75 units) (+13.5 units) -> (+38.25 units)
ijc night @ happy valley
ijc summary
There are two main plays for me in the IJC challenge. SILVESTRE DE SOUSA and KARIS TEETAN both represent value. De Sousa is representing Britain but is currently in Hong Kong as a Club Jockey and knows the track and runners well enough. I think he has an excellent chance to win with Glory Star, who is a standout for me and he has solid winning claims with All You Know who should pick up points. If de Sousa wins both those races then it should be game over, but should he pick up some minor points with Midnight Rattler in the first leg then he will be hard to beat. Similarly, Teetan has a good chance on Formula Galore (underrated by market) who can win and solid claims with Electric Lightning. His other two rides aren’t anything special, so he needs to capitalise with these two. Australian Zac Purton has some nice rides to pick up points and in the early market with the HKJC is the second favourite. If he can win the first leg then he is well-placed with his other rides (Positively High, Vigor Fame) a good chance to pick up some minor points. In the early markets, Australian Hugh Bowman is the favourite and I think he is a false favourite. His first two rides have genuine claims to figure but I’m not convinced about his final two rides and it might be best to bet around him.
Result: DE SOUSA 1st @ $7.50
ijc challenge forecast
Silvestre DE SOUSA
18 POINTS
Karis TEETAN
16 POINTS
Zac PURTON and Vincent HO
12 POINTS
strategy
SILVESTRE DE SOUSA
WIN (2.5 units)
KARIS TEETAN
WIN (1.5 units)
Overall result for 30 units strategy
+61.75 UNITS (206% PROFIT)
The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.
Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.
Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.
Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.
So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!
Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)