R9 NATHAN HANDICAP

-


Sha Tin (M25) - Sunday, 2 December 2018

17:10 HK TIME

summary


The likely short-priced favourite for this race is UGLY WARRIOR and he will be hard to beat. His form over this course and distance is impeccable, and he maps well, but the bottom line is that he is likely to be over-bet too. For that reason there are a few horses that off my assessment are far better chances than their prices suggest and therefore are worth small outlays on. Gunnison is the first of those horses to take the favourite on with. Yes, he is close to his mark, but he is racing well, doesn’t have to improve much at all and can swoop off some good pressure ahead of him. He might get the race run to suit and will simply be over his true odds. To a slightly lesser extent MEGA RED presents to have a similar case and should also appreciate the strong tempo in this race. He’s been running well this season and looks ready to deliver his best. Lastly, PERPETUAL TREASURE rated well with his last run too and is another that might be worth speculating. He should secure one of the runs of the race. All in all, if the track is playing fair, there will be some money to be made from this contest.

selections


3 UGLY WARRIOR

(rp – $3.00)

3rd @ $1.10p

2 GUNNISON

(rp – $6.50)

2nd @ $4.05p

5 PERPETUAL TREASURE

(rp – $8.50)

5th

10 MEGA RED

(rp – $9.00)

9th

strategy


2 GUNNISON

WIN (3 units)

5 PERPETUAL TREASURE

WIN (2 units)

10 MEGA RED

WIN (2 units)

2, 5, 10

QUINELLA BOXED (0.5 unit each, 1.5 units total)

speed


MOMENT OF TIME and PICK NUMBER ONE should be the leaders in a competitive race on paper early. PERPETUAL TREASURE and UGLY WARRIOR are both drawn well and have the tactical speed to take advantage of this.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)