best selections and strategies


Sha Tin (M25) - Sunday, 2 December 2018

29 units Strategy

best outlays


RACE 2

5 HAINAN STAR (rp – $2.50)

WIN (7 units)

2 SHINEALOT (rp – $8.00)

WIN (2 units)

HAINAN STAR was a little wayward late in the race at his last start and I believe he can atone for this with a couple of key gear additions. He maps to get every chance and I think he can turn the tables on the horse that beat him then, Perfect Match. SHINEALOT comes out of a Happy Valley event where his individual performance might be underestimated by the market. He is at too good a price not to have a small outlay on.

Result: 2nd (-7 units) + 3rd (-2 units) -> (-9 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 7

5 BIG PARTY (rp – $3.20)

WIN (6 units)

BIG PARTY was heavily backed late in betting when he made his debut and appeared to run out of fitness during the last 150m of the race. He has had two trials since and looks ready to run better on the all-weather track this afternoon. Big Party should secure a good run from barrier 6 and I think he’ll win.

Result: 1st @ $4.60 best corporate (+21.6 units)

RACE 9

2 GUNNISON (rp – $6.50)

WIN (3 units)

5 PERPETUAL TREASURE (rp – $8.50)

WIN (2 units)

10 MEGA RED (rp – $9.00)

WIN (2 units)

2, 5, 10

QUINELLA BOXED (0.5 unit each, 1.5 units total)

Whilst I respect that Ugly Warrior is one of the leading chances and the horse to beat in race 9 there’s no way I can mark him as short as he has come up at early (odds on). GUNNISON is poorly drawn but should be able to sit behind a strong speed and is capable of finishing over the top of them at his best. PERPETUAL TREASURE and MEGA RED are two other horses that are more than capable of winning this race and they rate better with me to do so than the early market has “pegged” them.

Results: 2nd (-3 units) + 5th (-2 units) + 9th (-2 units) + (-1.5 units) -> (-8.5 units)

RACE 10

MR SO AND SO (rp – $4.50)

WIN (3.5 units)

12 HOME RUN (rp – $7.50)

WIN (2 units)

The last should be run at a genuine speed with MR SO AND SO mapping to get one of the runs of the race. Whilst he has to carry top-weight and has to concede to nearly all others he rates to be good enough to overcome this. HOME RUN should be more or less at his peak for this preparation and I expect him to be able to run into the finish. He just needs a little luck given his run-style and the map.

Result: 1st @ $7.50 best corporate (+22.75 units) + 6th (-2 units) -> (+20.75 units)

Overall result for 29 units strategy


+24.85 UNITS  (86% PROFIT)

The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.

Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.

Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.

Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.

So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!

Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.

Cheers

 

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)