R8 ELGIN HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M24) - Wednesday, 28 November 2018

22:50 HK TIME

summary


This is an interesting and decent quality race to close the card with some progressive types taking part. LITTLE BIRD comes in to this event with the best figures from a dominant win over the course and distance on his last outing but he must contend with 6.5kg more this time and will jump from the outside gate. That being considered, BLITZING is a deserved favourite with the booking of Purton. On his last outing he worked too hard early and was vulnerable late when GOOD BEAUTY beat him. A more conservative ride in the early stages should see him hard to beat. Good Beauty is a contender, along with FANTASTIC FEELING who also comes through that form line. However, a small wager with SIR REDALOT (SID) in quinellas might also be worthwhile. He was terrific when settling a lot further back than he needed to on his last outing and if he can stay in touch this time, he will be very competitive. I’m happy to outlay on Blitzing first and foremost however taking quinellas with other good chances Little Bird and Sir Redalot. Frankly however if the early tote market leads to corporates opening Little Bird and Sir Redalot at anything like the $8 and $9 at time of publishing then you’d have to have something on them at those prices.

From Sweet In Defeat:

SIR REDALOT

selections


9 BLITZING

(rp – $3.20)

2nd @ $1.30p (quinella with 1 @ $13.40)

4 LITTLE BIRD

(rp – $6.00)

6th

3 SIR REDALOT

(rp – $6.50)

4th (first-four/quartet with 1, 9 & 6 @ $601.80)

6 GOOD BEAUTY

(rp – $8.00)

3rd @ $3.05p (trifecta/tierce with 1 & 9 @ $189.50)

1 FANTASTIC FEELING

(rp – $12.00)

1st @ $8.40 & $2.40 ($11.00 best corporate)

strategy


9 BLITZING

WIN (5 units)

9 with 4 & 3

QUINELLA (1.5 unit each, 3 units total)

4 with 3

QUINELLA (1 unit)

speed


LITTLE BIRD can work across from barrier 12 and lead at a pace on the FAST side of GOOD. I think Purton might elect to trail on BLITZING and give him the chance to relax a fraction before sprinting hard late. POWERMAX is another speed horse with MY CHANCE drawn well to take close order.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)