best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M24) - Wednesday, 28 November 2018
30 units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 3
2 NEW ELEGANCE (rp – $3.50)
WIN (7 units)
5 TOP LAURELS (rp – $5.00)
WIN (4.5 units)
I assessed that the last start run of NEW ELEGANCE had enough merit to it for him to be hard to beat in this event today. I feel the market underrates his chances and has overstated the bad luck HELENE CHARISMA received last start. TOP LAURELS looks a decent over also but will just need a touch of luck in the running from his draw.
Result: 7th (-7 units) + 2nd (-4.5 units) -> (-11.5 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 6
4 E-MASTER (rp – $3.00)
WIN (6 units)
12 DRAGON DANCE (rp – $4.50)
WIN (3.5 units)
E-MASTER hasn’t had much go his way this preparation and could have easily won any one of his three races this campaign. Again he’ll some luck from his draw given the map tonight, but he’s the clear top selection and sound bet at his early price. DRAGON DANCE is another that shapes up as a strong chance and I expect he’ll give “a lot of cheek” on the pace.
Result: 2nd (-6 units) + 3rd (-3.5 units) -> (-9.5 units)
RACE 8
9 BLITZING (rp – $3.20)
WIN (5 units)
9 with 4 & 3
QUINELLA (1.5 unit each, 3 units total)
4 with 3
QUINELLA (1 unit)
The last is a quality race and I rate the chances of BLITZING, LITTLE BIRD and SIR REDALOT highly. BLITZING is the horse that I believe can get the best run with Purton likely to lead or trail and give the horse his chance to finish off his race. LITTLE BIRD was very impressive last start and can run well again. SIR REDALOT has a bit to turn around on Little Bird, but has a weight swing and a kind draw that will have him naturally settle a pair or three closer in the running.
Result: 2nd (-5 units) + 6th & 4th (-4 units) -> (-9 units)
Overall result for 30 units strategy
-30 UNITS (100% LOSS)
The heavy rain during the Sha Tin program really influenced the track, it was a huge advantage to be racing close to the rail and on the speed.
Have Fun Together ran an enormous race all things considered. He missed the kick by a couple of lengths before getting held up at the top of the straight, and made huge ground late and wide on the track.
Superich was brilliant and he looks a galloper with a lot of promise. He maintained a wide run and was powerful through the line. Noble Steed also did a good job to finish second, he’s got points in hand for the new season.
Shining On and Sunshine Holiday never really got into the race given how the track played.
So that brings to an end season 2017/18. Congratulations to John Size, Champion Trainer and Zac Purton, Champion Jockey for their achievements through out the term. It will certainly be a different landscape with Joao Moreira leaving to Japan and I look forward to unlocking plenty of winners factoring-in next season’s crop of jockeys!
Thanks for following Hutchi’s Honkers through out Hong Kong season 2017/18! It was satisfying to turn a seasonal profit, that was the goal and even though it wasn’t large, for bigger players who are able to earn rebates via their respective agencies, it’s been significant.
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)