R5 THE WAYFOONG CENTENARY BOWL (HANDICAP)

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Happy Valley (M22) - Wednesday, 21 November 2018

21:20 HK TIME

summary


There is a good bet in this event with HAR HAR HEART. The John Size-trained galloper was probably beaten by a bad gate last time and had to concede a lot of ground early in the race. He then sustained an excellent final-800m (48.14), probably peaking late in the run home and considering he was first up that was understandable. He will strip fitter, he maps to settle closer in the running, and looks a solid bet. There is plenty of speed here, which might also help HAPPY SEBRING, although I am not convinced he is suited to Happy Valley. HIGH VOLATILITY is racing well and he will try to lead all the way, so if the track is favouring those getting first use of the rail then he is a big chance. As already mentioned though, there is decent speed on paper for this event. MERRYGOWIN is an interesting runner. He will be fitter following his resuming run for the season and will be better suited up to this distance as well. The problem for Merrygowin is that he’s drawn to get back and wide, which is not a good combination of factors in most races run around Happy Valley over the 1650m. That said, watch his price closely, he could be worth a small outlay to save on the main bet on Har Har Heart.

selections


11 HAR HAR HEART

(rp – $2.80)

1st @ $6.15 & $2.00

8 HAPPY SEBRING

(rp – $5.00)

4th

6 HIGH VOLATILITY

(rp – $7.00)

2nd @ $1.50 (quinella with 11 @ $10.65)

9 MERRYGOWIN

(rp – $18.00)

10th

strategy


11 HAR HAR HEART

WIN (8 units)

speed


HIGH VOLATILITY and BLOCKER DEE are likely to be two of the main speed influences here with THUNDER STOMP working across from barrier 9. GREEN CARD maps to get one of the runs of the race with LET’S TAKE IT EASY and HAR HAR HEART settling around midfield.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)