best selections and strategies

Happy Valley (M22) - Wednesday, 21 November 2018

24 units Strategy

best outlay


11 HAR HAR HEART (rp – $2.80)

WIN (8 units)

HAR HAR HEART ran very well at his first assignment for the season from a wide draw. Then, he settled back and sustained a long run before peaking late and that suggested he could win “next up”. Tonight he maps to sit a pair or two closer to the lead, so with even luck I expect he’ll be too strong for his opposition.

Result: 1st @ $6.15 (+41.2 units)

next best outlays


11 NORDIC WARRIOR (rp – $6.50)

WIN (2.5 units)

8 NITRO EXPRESS (rp – $7.00)

WIN (1.5 units)

2 MY ALLY (rp – $10.00)

WIN (1 unit)

9 with 2, 8 & 11

QUINELLA (1 unit each, 3 units total)

The seventh race is an event that I see three runners that the market seems to be underrating in early betting. Primarily I believe NORDIC WARRIOR is the biggest over, whilst NITRO EXPRESS and MY ALLY can also run well with the right runs. The early favourite RACING LUCK will run well and a “saver” quinella with it is worth taking also.

Results: 4th (-2.5 units) + 6th (-1.5 units) + 5th (-1 unit) + (-3 units) -> (-8 units)

best each way


3 ZERO HEDGE (rp – $3.80)

WIN (3 units) PLACE (5 units)

ZERO HEDGE should be ready to run close to his best tonight and if he does he can win the last at a nice price. He showed at Sha Tin he was in good order returning a good last-400m sectional and he’s drawn to get an ideal trip in this.

Result: 5th (-3 units)(-5 units) -> (-8 units)

Overall result for 24 units strategy

+25.2 UNITS  (105% PROFIT)

The heavy rain during the Happy Valley program really influenced the track, being rated GOOD to YIELDING for races 5 and 6 before being reinstated to GOOD.

In race 5 HAR HAR HEART was expertly guided by Silvestre de Sousa and won rather cosily in the end. With the rain the market was thrown into some confusion and he closed a tick more than $6.00 across the board (tote and corporates). It was a super result for the best of the evening and ensured a healthy profit for the Strategy!

The seventh race was won by Green Luck who hugged the rail through out. Our main “speck” outlay there Nordic Warrior ran a super race at odds after somehow settling second-last. However he did track the eventual winner until the race got serious at the 500m before getting tightened in the straight. He’s one to watch in the right race. My Ally also set a strong tempo and fought on okay although well behind the winner. Nitro Express also ran on okay.

The last race was another classic Happy Valley finish. Unfortunately we were on the receiving end with Zero Hedge looking the winner at the 200m before getting beaten into fifth late in the piece. He was put into a good spot and it’s hard to believe he missed placing from there. Favourite Beauty Loyal can be forgiven after making a mistake at the start and being slowly away – it cost him crucial position.

There were a couple of other sweet results for those who use the individual race analysis and it was another profitable night for Strategy followers.

The weekend will see racing back at Sha Tin on Sunday, join me for that!