best selections and strategies

Sha Tin (M21) - Sunday, 18 November 2018

27 units Strategy

best outlay


11 NOBLE STEED (rp – $2.70)

WIN (7 units)

11 with 2

QUINELLA (1 unit)

11 with 6 & 14

QUINELLA (0.5 unit each, 1 unit total)

NOBLE STEED probably should have won his last start and against this field today I expect that he’ll atone. Joao Moreira will ride him and if he’s able to slot in just behind the main speed then he can finish over the top of the others and win. There are a few other runners at decent odds that can be taken in small unit quinellas with the Noble Steed.

Result: 1st @ $2.70 best corporate (+11.9 units) + 13th (-1 unit) + 4th & 5th (-1 unit) -> (+9.9 units)



2 MR STUNNING (rp – $3.00)

WIN (6 units)

I’ve been quite impressed with how MR STUNNING has progressed this preparation and he looks the clear value in the Jockey Club Sprint. His recent dirt trial (after a good raceday placing) suggested he won’t be far away from his peak, which will still have him good enough to win this and upset Hot King Prawn and others.

Result: 2nd (-6 units)


2 TIME WARP (rp – $3.00)

WIN (6 units)

TIME WARP bounced back to form in no uncertain terms to win the Sa Sa Ladies’ Purse and if he holds that level he’s the horse to beat again. It will be a battle of tactics between Purton and Moreira, but under the race conditions the older brother Time Warp can withstand the pressure from GLORIOUS FOREVER once again.

Result: 9th (-6 units)

each way outlay


5 CHARIZARD (rp – $6.00)

WIN (2 units) & PLACE (4 units)

The situation with CHARIZARD is that he’s coming off a pretty decent debut performance. The key for him is the overall speed of the race. If it’s at least truly run, then he showed he has the required turn-of-foot to be very competitive and run better than his early odds suggest.

Result: 1st @ $7.00 & $2.50 best corporate (+12 units) (+6 units) -> (+18 units)

Overall result for 27 unit strategy

+15.9 UNITS  (59% PROFIT)

It was an incredible day in many respects at Sha Tin. We saw the 1600m and 2000m track records lowered following brutally run races.

Beauty Generation stayed out of the early burn before Zac Purton set the horse alight with 1200m to run and he sustained another amazing gallop to win.

Time Warp and Glorious Forever ran crazy early sectionals in the Jockey Club Cup to kill-off their winning chances with the former tailing right out after running the first 1200m some 21.5 lengths inside standard. It’s no wonder he punctured badly late.

Mr Stunning was very stiff to miss Hot King Prawn by a neck in the finish of the JC Sprint. Some how after jumping a length clear from the barriers he found himself three-wide after 400 metres, getting shoved out there from a two-wide spot. Unfortunately that extra ground covered cost him in the end and the book will read “strong second” and the ledger “-6 units”.

Earlier in the day Charizard won very well and gave his opposition no excuses when he settled last, came around the field and won quite softly on the line. He opened at $7.00 across the corporates, so well done to the many who snapped up those odds.

So Joao Moreira ended the afternoon with a treble which included the Best Outlay Noble Steed. The horse got the run he so desperately deserved and it was pleasing to see him let down and punch right through the line.

The Best Selections and Strategies ended in profit and importantly the Race Previews continue to deliver plenty for those who like to plot races using speed maps and who strictly bet on price fluctuations.

It’s three weeks now to the HKIR in December, but there’s still money to be made in the mean time. Wednesday we’re at Happy Valley once more, join me then!