R6 THE JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION TROPHY HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M20) - Wednesday, 14 November 2018

21:45 HK TIME

summary


COUNTRY STAR is bidding to make it three career wins from four starts and given the form around him and his recent figures, he should be hard to beat again. However, with Purton teaming up with John Size, he is likely to start under his true odds. I’ve marked him a shade of odds-on, I expect that he’d win a race like this a fraction more than 50% of the time, but don’t see that he justifies being any shorter. This means it looks like it’ll be worthwhile having small specks on a couple of other chances at odds. CEREFINO and SUPER LEADER are possibilities. The former ran on well first up, will strip fitter and with the blinkers going on, he might prove hard to catch if Country Star gets caught wide or if Cerefino settles in front of him. Daring Fit was excellent in defeat on his first run for Paul O Sullivan, but the barrier this time is not ideal. However, the market will leave him alone as a consequence, and he does possess enough speed to cross if he desires. (whether Teetan opts to do that is another matter). The same applies to Super Leader who ran on well behind Country Star last time. He continues to deliver good closing sectionals, might be a frustrating type in that regard, but again if they go too hard, or there’s trouble, he certainly has the ability to capitalise.

selections


3 COUNTRY STAR

(rp – $1.90)

2nd @ $1.20p

1 CEREFINO

(rp – $10.00)

12th

11 SUPER LEADER

(rp – $12.00)

5th

7 DARING FIT

(rp – $18.00)

11th

strategy


1 CEREFINO

WIN (2 units)

11 SUPER LEADER

WIN (1.5 units)

1 & 11

QUINELLA PLACE/DUET (1 unit)

speed


The pace should be at least GOOD here with EXTREMELY FUN and DOUBLE VALENTINE working forward from inside draws. CEREFINO can punch forward as might DARING FIT. COUNTRY STAR has been good from the barriers in his starts to date, but with a speed inside him Purton will have to be sharp to secure the right run.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)