R3 NAKAYAMA HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M20) - Wednesday, 14 November 2018

20:15 HK TIME

summary


This is a very even race on paper with positioning in the first 300m and who gets the right spot being particularly crucial there’s essentially a length between the ratings of the six best chances. A lot of the speed comes from the higher barriers, with LOOK ERAS, LUCKY LUCKY and LUNAR ZEPHYR all natural “go forward” types. I liked the recent trial of Look Eras and he appears primed to run well. The barrier draw is an issue, but he has some tactical speed. Lucky Lucky has the booking of Zac Purton, which is a bonus, and he might decide not to contest the lead, whilst still racing handy, but again barrier 10 is an issue. GENTLE BREEZE has drawn awkwardly following a decent run in defeat over the course and distance last time when he had the run of the race, so it has to be questionable whether he can repeat. The debutant SPECIAL STARS went quite well in a recent trial but is obviously hard to gauge on debut. MULTIMAX has been given a torrid run at his last couple of starts and looks capable of bouncing back. MR RIGHT has won 5/15 in this grade and maps ideally. My top selection GENERAL IRON is one from one in this class and his early season form was good enough for him to win this. He often needs luck in the running though given his racing pattern. Overall, it’s a tough race, so outlay with caution.

selections


2 GENERAL IRON

(rp – $6.00)

3rd @ $3.40p (trifecta/tierce with 4 & 3 @ $598.20)

3 LOOK ERAS

(rp – $7.50)

2nd @ $4.45p (quinella with 4 @ $45.50)

12 MULTIMAX

(rp – $7.50)

6th

9 LUCKY LUCKY

(rp – $8.00)

10th

1 MR RIGHT

rp – $8.50)

4th (first four/quartet with 4, 3, 2 @ $2,135.80)

4 GENTLE BREEZE

(rp – $12.00)

1st @ $5.30 & $1.95

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

speed


I expect the pace to be at least GOOD here with MR RIGHT a good chance to lead. MULTIMAX, LA BOMBA and LUCKY LUCKY all possess the capability to go forward, with LUNAR ZEPHYR falling into the same category. This outside pressure might mean the pace is GOOD to FAST.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)