best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M20) - Wednesday, 14 November 2018

38 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 4

7 CHAMPION SUPREME (rp – $2.25)

WIN (10 units)

CHAMPION SUPREME wasn’t well away from the barriers on debut, but his run was very good all the same. With an even getaway and stepping up in distance should mean he’s put in the right position to be very hard to beat tonight.

Result: 4th (-10 units)

best each way


RACE 8

5 TURIN REDSTAR (rp -$4.50)

WIN (5 units) PLACE (10 units)

TURIN REDSTAR sat on a red-hot speed last start and was only run over late. His efforts this preparation have been very good and even though he’s up against another galloper with huge potential (Red Warrior), I believe Turin Redstar is going to be very competitive. He looks a top each way price going off the early market.

Result: 2nd @ $7.50 & $2.25 best corporate (-5 units)(+12.25 units) -> (+7.25 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 2

4 HURRICANE HUNTER (rp – $3.50)

WIN (6 units)

12 PEACE ON EARTH (rp – $6.50)

WIN (2.5 units)

Two horses will present for the second race with good chances given their respective prices. HURRICANE HUNTER has looked very good in track work and out of the trials and might have turned the corner and therefore be better than Class 5. PEACE ON EARTH caught the eye last start but needs a few breaks. If he gets those then he can cause a minor upset.

Result: 4th (-6 units) + 1st @ $6.50 best corporate (+13.75 units) -> (+6.75 units)

RACE 6

1 CEREFINO (rp – $10.00)

WIN (2 units)

11 SUPER LEADER (rp – $12.00)

WIN (1.5 units)

1 & 11

QUINELLA PLACE/DUET (1 unit)

This is another situation where a talented and progressive horse looks to be overbet; I’m speaking of COUNTRY STAR. He’s a shade of odds on for me, but that means I think CEREFINO and SUPER LEADER are both worth small outlays at their prices.

Result: 12th (-2 units) + 5th (-1.5 units) + (-1 unit) -> (-4.5 units)

Overall result for 38 unit strategy


-0.5 UNIT  (1% LOSS)

It was a night at the Valley where small margins might have sent you home in a limo or hitching a lift in a horse float. Weirdly enough, for HH it was a case of leaving as we came – more or less a “chop out”.

Champion Supreme failed to quicken after a perfect trip which was disappointing. He was very well-backed in the market, like a few on the night, and came up short.

Turin Redstar is fast becoming the stiffest horse in HK after another second, that said he was given his chanced was knocked off late. He was a great each way price and deserved higher billing, however for the each way recommended outlay it was a good return on the race where the odds-on favourite (Red Warrior) was rolled.

Peace On Earth was very ably-handled by Umberto Rispoli and even though Hurricane Hunter didn’t quicken like he might have been expected too, the former was strong. Again he held at a good price through out and it was a profitable outlay.

Country Star closed 2/1-on ($1.50) and van Niekerk pipped it and Purton on the post with Ambitious Heart. We avoided backing the favourite, but didn’t expect that horse to roll him. Super Leader finished on very well again in a race that was controlled by those up front running lead times to standard, whilst Cerefino was poor. He was checked post race with nothing found so maybe in the morning more could be revealed.

On the night the Best Selections more-or-less broke square, which given the number of well-supported horses that were beaten is not bad going – we avoided a few of them. That’s a result in itself. There’s some profit to be churned over the next few weeks and I can’t wait for the Jockey Club trials on Sunday at Sha Tin.

Join me for that race day!

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)