best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M18) - Wednesday, 7 November 2018

36 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 7

11 BLITZING (rp – $2.20)

WIN (9 units)

BLITZING takes a rise in class but I have been very impressed with the numbers he’s been delivering when winning his last two starts. He maps to find the front easily and from there Karis Teetan should be able to steer him to victory.

Result: 2nd (-9 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAY


RACE 5

10 LITTLE BIRD (rp – $2.80)

WIN (7 units)

LITTLE BIRD put in a thoroughly decent performance to run second to the highly promising Country Star last start. He maps to either lead or trail here, and I expect him to win with a repeat of what he did in race 108.

Result: 1st @ $2.90 best corporate (+13.3 units)

OTHER OUTLAYS


RACE 6

8 PLANET STAR (rp – $3.00)

WIN (5 units)

9 SICHUAN BOSS (rp – $6.00)

WIN (3 units)

Two horses that map to dominate this race at backable prices are PLANET STAR and SICHUAN BOSS. The former simply did too much work last time but fought on well considering. The latter was well-rated and with a similar time in front tonight could “steal” another win.

Results: 10th (-5 units) + 11th (-3 units) -> (-8 units)

RACE 2

8 DOLLAR REWARD (rp – $3.80)

WIN (4 units)

6 SPRING WIN (rp – $7.50)

WIN (2 units)

DOLLAR REWARD ran an undeniably good last-600m last time which suggested that he was ready to win with even luck at his next start (which is tonight). SPRING WIN also looks too big a price, although he’ll need a touch of luck from where he’ll get to in the running.

Result: 8th (-4 units) + 5th (-2 units) -> (-6 units)

RACE 8

8 SUPER HOPPY (rp – $3.80)

WIN (4 units)

11 JADE THEATRE (rp – $7.00)

WIN (2 units)

The last race presents another two horses that present at nice prices early in betting. SUPER HOPPY got into an impossible position from a wide draw last time but ran with enough merit. Overall his form has been hard to fault and he’s drawn better with Chad Schofield back aboard. JADE THEATRE won by a big margin last time and whilst tonight is a fair bit harder being up in class following a big penalty; he can go on with it.

Result: 11th (-4 units) + 9th (-2 units) -> (-6 units)

Overall result for 36 units strategy


-15.7 UNITS  (43.6% LOSS)

It was a very competitive evening of racing at Happy Valley with some big priced winners! Thanks to the people who messaged me with some great results having used my rated prices to bet the “overs” race-by-race. From the fourth through to the last race the winner was discussed in analysis, with the main quaddie returning over $9,000!

For the strategy the two major outlays ran well. Little Bird won in dominant fashion like there was plenty ahead of him. Blitzing unfortunately ran second after doing some work early and getting rolled on the rail late. Frustrating yes, that’s the third time in three meetings where my best has run second… something you probably don’t need reminding about.

That said, I’m happy with how the form is shaping all things considered.

The race tempo of the sixth event developed quite differently to expectation. Planet Star and Sichuan Boss broke 27 seconds for the first section of the race, which lead to running the first half far too quickly. They bottomed-out badly late.

Spring Win and Dollar Reward ran okay, but wide trips weren’t desirable at all. The latter will keep.

The last race had only three lengths covering 11 of the 12 horses with Super Hoppy running below expectation. He was given his chance to run on and was fair. Jade Theatre also appeared to only sprint “evenly” in the straight, although getting two pairs further back than expected.

Hong Kong racing this weekend is on Saturday at Sha Tin!

I’m into the form and it’ll be ready to go for then!

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)