best selections and strategies


Sha Tin (M17) - Sunday, 4 November 2018

41 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 7

8 GLORIOUS FOREVER (rp – $1.70)

WIN (10 units)

Given the numbers he’s put on the board to date and the fact he’ll be getting weight off his main opposition, GLORIOUS FOREVER should be winning the Ladies’ Purse this afternoon. The only chink I can see is if he gets overawed by a little more pressure than he’s used too and over races thus leaving nothing in the tank late. If he gets anything like his own terms in front then they won’t catch him.

Result: 2nd (-10 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 10

10 SUPERICH (rp – $2.30)

WIN (8 units)

10 with 2 & 11

QUINELLA (1 unit each, 2 units total)

SUPERICH is one of the more progressive sprinted in Hong Kong and I expect that he can take the step up in class and distance and be too good here. He’s drawn ideally and can track the speed before being presented to win. COBY BOY and GREEN ENERGY are at good prices, can run well and can be taken in quinellas with Superich.

Result: 3rd (-8 units) (-2 units) -> (-10 units)

RACE 8

7 NEW ELEGANCE (rp – $3.80)

WIN (4.5 units)

4 IRISH VEGA (rp – $12.00)

WIN (1.5 units)

Whilst the 1800m races in Hong Kong can be difficult to map and muddling run affairs there are two horses that look decent outlays here, NEW ELEGANCE and IRISH VEGA. The former gets the run of the race and the latter looks to be building very nicely into the right form.

Result: 2nd (-4.5 units) + 10th (-1.5 units) -> (-6 units)

best each ways


RACE 9

9 MIGHTY MAVERICK (rp – $3.50)

WIN (3 units) PLACE (5 units)

MIGHTY MAVERICK steps up to a distance (1400m) that he’s won twice over and should be fit and ready to run to his best. He maps well and the form around him is sound.

Result: 9th (-3 units)(-5 units) -> (-8 units)

RACE 5

13 PRECIOUS SWEETIE (rp – $4.20)

WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)

5 & 13

QUINELLA (1 unit)

PRECIOUS SWEETIE comes from my Sweet In Defeat files and I expect should be swooping into the finish once again. The favourite FOLLOW ME is the horse to beat and is a good quinella option.

Result: 7th (-2 units)(-4 units) + (-1 units) -> (-7 units)

Overall result for 41 unit strategy


-41 UNITS  (100% LOSS)

Race meetings like today are a real test of character and patience, but my experience reminds me to analyse results objectively and to always have a long-term view amongst the short-term “noise”.

Zac Purton absolutely “schooled” his peers in the Sa Sa Ladies’ Purse and rated Time Warp to win after receiving as soft a run in front as possible. Simply put, Chad Schofield fell into the trap of not wanting to “fire his horse up” and in doing so gave away his two biggest assets; being able to run fast time overall, and carrying upwards of 7.5kg less than his opposition.

The tables were turned in race 10 in that Schofield beat home Purton. Dragon General was super finishing well off a very strong speed, his ideal race shape. Superich was caught in traffic unfortunately and got into clear running too late. Overall  the race delivered some good dividends for those who used the race 10 analysis.

New Elegance was given every chance to win by Purton and was upset. Whilst Mighty Maverick and Precious Sweetie were poor performers that didn’t deliver up to previous starts.

So a character building afternoon as they say and it’s on to Happy Valley on Wednesday to return to building a season long profit.

All the best with the Melbourne Cup! I’ll be cheering Yucatan and Cross Counter!

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)