best selections and strategies
Sha Tin (M16) - Wednesday, 31 October 2018
19 units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 8
11 NUCLEAR POWER (rp – $4.20)
WIN (3.5 units)
10 STRATHCLYDE (rp – $6.00)
WIN (2 units)
On a night and race card where “labeling one” is nigh on impossible, NUCLEAR POWER and STRATHCLYDE shape up as excellent “overs” prices to bet with some confidence in the last event. Both look to map well and I anticipate will get every chance to deliver their best ratings on the dirt, which should take them close to winning!
Result: 8th (-3.5 units) + 3rd (-2 units) -> (-5.5 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 3
4 KING GENKI (rp – $4.20)
WIN (3 units)
5 WINNING FAITH (rp – $7.00)
WIN (1.5 units)
The effort of KING GENKI to win his last start had plenty of merit and on the back of what should be a genuine tempo he can do the job again. WINNING FAITH has his first try on the all-weather but I’ve liked his two turf runs this season and he’s worked and trialed well-enough to suggest he’ll cope okay.
Result: 5th (-3 units) + 3rd (-1.5 units) -> (-4.5 units)
RACE 7
12 ELUSIVE STATE (rp – $3.80)
WIN (3 units)
9 REMARKABLE (rp – $6.50)
WIN (1.5 units)
ELUSIVE STATE has been in superb form and although in some respects he’s well-exposed, if he runs up to what he’s been delivering again he can win this evening. REMARKABLE is drawn barrier 12, but a couple of his performances last season suggested he could win a Class 3 race like this. Whilst he will be improved with the outing he’s worth a small outlay.
Result: 1st @ $3.20 best corporate (+6.6 units) + 8th (-1.5 units) -> (+5.1 units)
each way outlay
RACE 6
11 LETSGOFREE (rp – $8.00)
WIN (1.5 units) PLACE (3 units)
LETSGOFREE is a horse that Jimmy Ting has had for three starts this term and he’s switched him to the dirt today. He should be as fit as he needs to be and is drawn to get to a position where he can run better than his early odds suggest.
Result: 6th (-4.5 units)
Overall result for 19 units strategy
-9.4 UNITS (49% LOSS)
An unfortunately biased dirt surface was presented at Sha Tin which had the rail playing “red hot” with the advantage being for those who were able to stay closest to the inside.
This means assessing success or otherwise of the Best Selections must be framed within this. Elusive State was clearly very good, but had rails favours and was very short through out betting. The pattern didn’t suit Remarkable so he’ll keep for another day.
Nuclear Power couldn’t muster with them early and then got chopped out of the finish when looking to run into it. It cost him second, whether it cost him the win is debatable. Strathclyde had his chance to run into the frame and did.
King Genki was fair and Winning Faith ran well given the pace and pattern of the third event. Letsgofree was given the ideal run until his rider elected to come off the rail with 500m to go. He gave the run to the winner, but didn’t finish the event off well-enough himself to suggest he would’ve won. However a placing was certainly on the cards.
So simply put, I’m happy to turn the page on the AWT and push quickly on to Sa Sa Ladies Purse day on Sunday! Pakistan Star and Glorious Forever are set to meet what should be a most intriguing clash!
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)