best selections and strategies

Happy Valley (M15) - Sunday, 28 October 2018

35 units Strategy

best outlay


5 TURIN REDSTAR (rp – $2.40)

WIN (8 units)

TURIN REDSTAR ran very well last start given the tough run it received. With less pressure expected in this race, he can be ridden positively and is well-placed to turn the tables on Circuit Glory and win the race.

Result: 2nd (-8 units)



11 CHAPARRAL STAR (rp – $2.50)

WIN (7 units)

CHAPARRAL STAR ran a super race last start and returned one of the better ratings of that meeting. He is drawn to get a soft run in the race and will just need a touch of luck when things get serious to find clear running. If he does he should be winning.

Result: 2nd (-7 units)


11 RACING LUCK (rp – $4.00)

WIN (4 units)

7 THE JUDGE (rp – $5.00)

WIN (3 units)

RACING LUCK and THE JUDGE are two horses that I expect will run better than their early market prices suggest. Racing Luck is drawn well to be given every chance in the running, whilst The Judge has a bit more of a challenge from barrier 7, but is an improved looking galloper who I think can overcome the tricky map.

Result: 2nd (-4 units) + 7th (-3 units)


7 VICTORIOUS LEADER (rp – $5.50)

WIN (3 units)

10 MANFUL STAR (rp – $8.00)

WIN (2 units)

MANFUL STAR didn’t have many favours last start and with any luck can be competitive at a big price today. VICTORIOUS LEADER resumes following one start last season that rated good enough for this. In addition he’s trialed well around the city circuit and should be ready to win in a fresh state.

Result: 8th (-3 units) + 5th (-2 units) -> (-5 units)

Each way outlay


2 SUN TOUCH (rp – $3.80)

WIN (3 units) PLACE (5 units)

I expect that SUN TOUCH will lead this race and if rated well be very hard to run down. He doesn’t have the sharpest sprint at the end of his races so needs to be allowed to roll along at a genuine tempo to help draw the dash out of his opposition.

Result: 3rd @ $1.90 best corporate (-3 units)(+4.5 units) -> (+1.5 units)

Overall result for 35 unit strategy

-25.5 UNITS  (73% LOSS)

Three second-placings and a third with the main selections makes for a rather tough and frustrating afternoon.

Turin Redstar ran an enormous race on the speed, again he was the last horse standing of those in front. Circuit Glory and Seven Heavens dropped right out of the finish. I’ll be sticking with Turin Redstar moving forward. He has a lot of talent and once he’s ridden with a touch of patience I’m confident he’ll show his quality.

There wasn’t a great deal of “Racing Luck” on the track today however one will analyse the meeting and set up for the next which is on Wednesday at Sha Tin (AWT).