best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M14) - Wednesday, 24 October 2018
33 Units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 8
4 JADE THEATRE (rp – $2.40)
WIN (8 units)
4 with 8 & 12
QUINELLA (1 unit each, 2 units total)
In the last event JADE THEATRE shapes as the best bet of the evening. He didn’t have much go his way last start and today the shape of the race is ideal for him. He’s third-up and should be bang on fitness-wise to run up to his best and that should have him winning. There is some value in the quinellas with JOLLY CONVERGENCE and HERO TIME given the race map as well.
Result: 1st @ $2.70 best corporate (+13.6 units) + 8th & 12th (-2 units) -> (+11.6 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 1
1 MANAGEMENT STAR (rp – $3.20)
WIN (4.5 units)
MANAGEMENT STAR didn’t have many favours when fresh up for the season. Zac Purton takes over the ride and although he jumps from an awkward barrier, with any sort of luck in running will prove hard to beat.
Result: 5th (-4.5 units)
RACE 7
11 STAR OF JOY (rp – $4.50)
WIN (3.5 units)
12 POWERMAX (rp – $5.00)
WIN (3 units)
Both STAR OF JOY and POWERMAX represent good prices to back in race 7. The former has been running genuine races and has drawn the right barrier to be given his chance again. The latter is back up to Class 3 after a narrow second-placing and off his best numbers can get it done off his light weight.
Result: 4th (-3.5 units) + 1st @ $8.00 best corporate (+21 units) -> (+17.5 units)
each way outlays
RACE 2
8 DYNAMIC EAGLE (rp – $4.50)
WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)
DYNAMIC EAGLE ran very strongly last start to finish second to Namjong Plus. He should be well suited to the extra distance he competes over tonight and maps ideally. He does take some time to wind up, so apprentice Mo will just need to ensure he “gets going” at the right time.
Result: 3rd @ $2.35p best corporate (-2 units)(+5.4 units) -> (+3.4 units)
RACE 4
3 THE SHOW (rp – $5.50)
WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)
There was little wrong with the dead-heat win of THE SHOW last time and I expect that from his draw he’ll get his chance to repeat that performance, which would be good enough to earn the mark.
Result: 3rd @ $3.00p best corporate (-2 units)(+8 units) -> (+6 units)
Overall result for 33 units strategy
+34 UNITS (103% PROFIT)
It was a very good night for the Best Selections and Strategies with an excellent profit overall.
Jade Theatre capped things off ideally winning as the meeting’s best bet and continue a solid run with 7 out of the last 9 best bets winning. The race panned out as per my map with Zac Purton planting his charge in the perfect stalking position before peeling off the genuine speed to win in soft fashion.
Earlier in the night Management Star was simply outpaced in a race where the Class 5 gallopers ran Class 2 (or even better!) times. It was perturbing to say the least given where I know these horses should sit in the “pecking order” of Hong Kong racing, so that’s something for me to measure moving forward.
We got a head-bob go our way in race 7, which was somewhat overdue, and those who backed both Star Of Joy and Powermax early with corporates were rewarded with great “overs” prices ($7.00 & $8.00 widely available). The former was a huge run after missing away and the latter got the run of the race to get it done.
The two each way bets were well positioned in their respective races and again ran well above their early prices. Dynamic Eagle over raced on the back of a very slow early speed. The Show never looked like challenging the winner but ran honestly all the same.
The Happy Valley track that presented overall was lightning fast and not like what we’ve been witnessing over the six previous meetings this season. Make sure you catch my M14 Sweet In Defeat review. There were another two SID file entrants to win last night.
Racing on Sunday will continue at Happy Valley for a 10 race meeting during the afternoon. The only afternoon meeting at the city course for the season.
Make sure you join me then for that!
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)