R5 A. LANGE & SOHNE EXCELLENT HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M13) - Sunday, 21 October 2018

15:05 HK TIME

summary


There are a couple of horses that look like they’ll be worth outlaying on here. BELLAGIO caught my eye when he resumed fresh-up. That day (race 41) he ran sixth but delivered a race fastest last-200m of 12.02 in an event that has seen three of the horses that finished in front of him win at their next starts (Impeccable Fellow – third, Fortunate Runner – fourth and Pakistan Friend – fifth). In addition Bellagio will be fitted with blinkers, is an improved and has plenty of upside. The other horse that shapes as a good over is CARE FREE PRINCE. He stuck on quite nicely last start and even though he’s drawn wide today he looks one of the likely go-forward horses that might not receive much pressure. CORDYCEPS won second-up last preparation and he didn’t get all favours fresh up. He’s a horse that steps up in distance and should have a bit more to give this prep being lightly tried overall. HAPPY SEBRING was a bit disappointing fresh up, but I think he’ll be much better back to 1400m and Sha Tin. Like Cordyceps he won second-up last preparation. Bellagio is the main bet here and is the “each way play of the day”.

From Sweet In Defeat:

BELLAGIO

selections


8 BELLAGIO

(rp – $3.80)

4th

13 CARE FREE PRINCE

(rp – $8.00)

14th

1 HAPPY SEBRING

(rp – $6.00)

1st @ $5.00 & $2.40

2 CORDYCEPS

(rp – $8.00)

3rd @ $3.35p

strategy


8 BELLAGIO

WIN & PLACE (3 x 6)

speed


SUPER FUN and CARE FREE PRINCE can set a GOOD pace here. SPEEDY DRAGON is drawn to get a sweet run from EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)