best selections and strategies

Sha Tin (M13) - Sunday, 21 October 2018

27 units Strategy

best outlay


3 COMPLACENCY (rp – $2.50)

WIN (7 units)

COMPLACENCY was terrific in defeat second-up over this course and distance and should get a nice run from a decent draw. He has struck a field without a great deal of depth and if he can hold the form out of his last run then he can notch his second Hong Kong win.

Result: 1st @ $3.35 (+16.45 units)



2 PAKISTAN STAR (rp – $4.00)

WIN (5 units)

The mile first up shouldn’t be an issue for Gr.1 galloper PAKISTAN STAR, who has been impressing in his lead up work. He receives 2.5kg from Beauty Generation, who obviously will be tough to beat on the back of a sensational win first up this term. However, Pakistan Star is more than capable providing he is on his best behavior!

Result: 4th (-5 units)

best each way


8 BELLAGIO (rp – $3.80)

WIN (3 units) PLACE (6 units)

BELLAGIO made the Sweet In Defeat file following an eye-catching first up run this term, which has seen three runners from that race salute at their next starts, confirming the strength of the event. The blinkers go on and it is time to get on.

Result: 4th (-3 units)(-6 units) -> (-9 units)

next best each way


3 SMART CHARADE (rp – $4.20)

WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)

The fast pace took its toll on SMART CHARADE last start and given he returned with an issue (blood in trachea) he can be followed again. This race appears to have a more sedate tempo on paper and if that transpires then Smart Charade can capitalise.

Result: 10th (-2 units)(-4 units) -> (-6 units)

Overall result for 27 unit strategy

-3.55 UNITS  (-13.3% LOSS)

The best bet of the afternoon Complacency won in strong fashion and did well to stay on after having sat close to an early speed that was quicker than standard. Given he’s won in such fashion, I expect that he’ll be able to go on with the job up in Class 3. I’ll confirm this once fully assessing the race sectionals and how it fits into the day.

Pakistan Star raced a touch keen fresh and he loomed briefly before his condition gave way. He’ll be an improver for the run, but didn’t end up being a match for the hard, fit and improved Beauty Generation. He’ll keep though and it remains to be seen what his December target will be; the Cup or Vase?

Bellagio ran a great race but wasn’t helped in the closing stages by a rather uninspired ride. He went from winning to not filling a placing in 100m which was very frustrating to watch. He’ll keep, albeit now more exposed than before and therefore his price won’t be as lucrative in a similar race.

Smart Charade was poor, his rider expressed concern with his action post-race, but no abnormalities were found. Following last start’s issue I’ll very much be treading warily with this galloper into the future.

Hot King Prawn was certainly a highlight on the afternoon and following the race Ivictory was examined by the vet with no abnormalities found. He will have to trial to the satisfaction of the stewards before being cleared to race again.

All in all there were some good results on the day and we press forward to Happy Valley on Wednesday!