R7 ROSELLE HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M12) - Thursday, 18 October 2018

22:15 HK TIME

summary


On paper, there are three leading chances in this event and the main form reference is Race 51 where RED WARRIOR and AMAZING SATCHMO clashed earlier this season over the course and distance. Red Warrior gave Amazing Satchmo 4kg on that occasion, enjoyed a more economical run and proved too good. Red Warrior is probably open to more improvement, but does have the outside gate and this time concedes 6.5kg to a rival who will enjoy a good run through the race.  That said I think Purton will be positive from the wide draw and look to dominate things outside the leader. Obviously a good case can be made for both runners with prices as always being key, I’m happy to side with the progressive Size-trained horse though. BRAVE LEGEND drops back to a mile and his recent runs rate well enough to win providing he gets tempo genuine enough, which looks unlikely. So he will need luck. Speaking of pace and luck, both were against LET’S TAKE IT EASY when he made his seasonal return and he should map to race closer this time and can sprint into the finish as well.

selections


1 RED WARRIOR

(rp – $3.30)

1st @ $2.65 & $1.40 ($3.20 best corporate)

12 AMAZING SATCHMO

(rp – $3.80)

6th

7 LET’S TAKE IT EASY

(rp – $7.00)

3rd @ $1.95p

3 BRAVE LEGEND

(rp – $9.00)

4th

strategy


1 RED WARRIOR

WIN (7 units)

1 with 12

QUINELLA (1 unit)

speed


TAKING AIM can lead this race at a SLOW speed from AMAZING SATCHMO and LET’S TAKE IT EASY. RED WARRIOR is drawn widest of all, but Purton is likely to ask him to sit handy and shortly after the start might find himself positioned outside of the Taking Aim.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)