best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M12) - Thursday, 18 October 2018
27 units Strategy
best outlay
RACE 7
1 RED WARRIOR (rp – $3.30)
WIN (7 units)
1 with 12
QUINELLA (1 unit)
RED WARRIOR has drawn poorly, which on the face of things is a disadvantage, but looking at the map I believe Zac Purton will be positive from the gates and look to have the horse travelling in the first couple in the run. He has a lot of upside and it won’t surprise me if he finds another level again tonight. A quinella with AMAZING SATCHMO is a sound play as they’re clearly the two main players in the race to my assessment.
Result: 1st @ $3.20 best corporate (+15.4 units) + 6th (-1 unit) -> (+14.4 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 3
5 GOLDEN KID (rp – $4.20)
WIN (3 units)
1 SICHUAN BOSS (rp – $5.50)
WIN (2 units)
GOLDEN KID and SICHUAN BOSS both map to dominate this race on speed and in addition to this is the fact that their form levels are more than enough to have them competitive. I’m happy to speck both at good prices given how I see the race unfolding.
Result: 8th (-3 units) + 1st @ $4.80 best corporate (+7.6 units) -> (+4.6 units)
best each way
RACE 1
6 GRACIOUS RYDER (rp – $3.80)
WIN (3 units) & PLACE (5 units)
GRACIOUS RYDER presents in a fresh state and I believe going off two trials that he’ll be ready to go. His best ratings have him clear in this and he’s a top each way play.
Result: 9th (-3 units)(-5 units) -> (-8 units)
next best each way
RACE 2
9 DOMINATOR (rp – $4.00)
WIN (2 units) & PLACE (4 units)
Typically Paul O’Sullivan-trained horses take a run before climbing into their better form but DOMINATOR is another runner that I’ve been impressed with at the trials. He returned a couple of good ratings last term and he looks to have decent upside.
Result: 3rd @ $2.00p best corporate (-2 units)(+4 units) -> (+2 units)
Overall result for 27 units strategy
+13 UNITS (48% PROFIT)
The Best Selections and Strategies turned a healthy profit and it was based around Red Warrior delivering strongly under a picture perfect Purton steer. He wasn’t any “spoils” and wasn’t available above my rated price, but probably won in a manor that suggested he legitimately deserved to be even shorter.
Sichuan Boss gave us a nice return in the third race. Well done to Victor Wong who managed to rate the horse a lot better than previously to score the win. Again a larger price would’ve been preferable, however I am obliged to release my plays at a time that is often earlier than when corporates release their prices. In addition, of course the early totes whilst “liquid” to a degree (up to a million HKD in the win pools), are no where near the size they’ll be upon close. However those are the realities and conditions that one operates under!
Gracious Ryder will simply keep for another day. He was in a great position early, however Whyte found himself in major trouble from the time the race “got serious”.
Dominator ran well and the speck gave a small return, looking at him though he’s got improvement to come. I’ll be interested in the race he next slots into.
Outside of the Best Selections, there were more highlights in the analyses of the individual races and here’s to the form continuing into this Sunday!
Join me then!
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)