ANALYSIS – Saturday, 13 October 2018

best selections and strategies

Sha Tin (M11) - Saturday, 13 October 2018

Best Bets HH Live Race 1 Race 2 Race 3 Race 4 Race 5 Race 6 Race 7 Race 8 Race 9 Race 10

35 units Strategy

best outlays

RACE 6

7 MONKEY JEWELLERY (rp – $2.00)

WIN (12 units)

7 with 6 and 11

QUINELLA (1.5 units each, 3 units total)

MONKEY JEWELLERY was ran an outstanding race on debut for John Size. He reeled-off closing sectionals that said that he wouldn’t be held in this class for long. There’s good speed in the race, he maps well and Hong Kong’s leading rider Zac Purton takes the saddle.

Result: 4th (-12 units)(-3 units) -> (-15 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS

RACE 2

6 BEAUTY DAY (rp – $2.40)

WIN (7.5 units)

BEAUTY DAY should get every favour on the lead this afternoon and I’m banking on the fact that he’ll be a hard and fit with this being his third run for the season today.

Result: 7th (-7.5 units)

RACE 8

11 GREEN ENERGY (rp – $7.00)

WIN (2.5 units)

3 HARMONY VICTORY (rp – $4.80)

WIN (4 units)

Two horses in particular present at good prices in the race 8 early market; GREEN ENERGY and HARMONY VICTORY. The former was a very impressive winner last start and responded well to the gear changes and being ridden quietly early. Can he repeat? It’s worth specking to find out. The latter was also an eye-catcher first up in HK. It should be a natural improver having had that run.

Result: Late-Scratched + 5th (-4 units) -> (-4 units)

each way

RACE 3

1 ADONIS (rp $3.80)

WIN (2 units) & PLACE (4 units)

ADONIS can be positioned in a good place during the running of this race and I assess him on ratings as the favourite. He takes a drop in class and even though he carries top-weight, the quality of horses he’s run against last term is superior to his competition today.

Result: 9th (-2 units)(-4 units) -> (-6 units)

Overall result for 32.5 unit strategy (given late-scratching)

-32.5 UNITS (100% LOSS)

Monkey Jewellery underscored a disappointing afternoon at Sha Tin. He certainly didn’t finish his race like he did on debut and was poor.

Beauty Day refused to settle during the first half of his race and Green Energy didn’t get to race.

On the bright side the race strategies gave plenty a return on the AWT events.

Racing goes to Happy Valley, but it’s a rare Thursday program with another HK public holiday (the Chueng Yeung Festival) being observed on Wednesday. With the Moreira story breaking on Thursday I’ll be releasing my SID reviews of Sha Tin (last Sunday) and Happy Valley on Monday and Tuesday.

All the best!