R5 OSMANTHUS HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M10) - Wednesday, 10 October 2018

21:15 HK TIME

summary


This is quite an even race overall. I gave NICE KICK a good chance last time he raced and he was very well supported in the market, but was given a terrible ride. With an easier run in transit, which I map him to receive, I expect that he could turn things around and be fighting out the finish. BINGO covered some extra ground last start and he too might find himself in a better spot this time, but the key is the first 200m for him. That said Zac Purton is the perfect man to help get him up and running early. FLYING MONKEY has drawn the outside gate, which will put many off, but he can work forward and with the 4.5kg claim he looks like he’ll be an appealing price and therefore potential play. APPLAUSE is well-weighted once again and as long as he doesn’t concede too much ground to the leaders in the first half of the race then he too has leading claims, in this contest. It is a race where there are a few genuine chances, but I see some overs about a couple of runners that are worth a small wager.

selections


9 NICE KICK

(rp – $6.00)

4th

7 BINGO

(rp – $4.00)

5th

1 FLYING MONKEY

(rp – $9.00)

12th

12 APPLAUSE

(rp – $6.50)

2nd @ $1.50p

strategy


9 NICE KICK

WIN (1.5 units)

1 FLYING MONKEY

WIN (1 unit)

speed


FLYING MONKEY might work across from a wide draw and help create pace that should be GOOD overall. BINGO and SUNNY DRAGON are others that can take forward positions from LOTUS BREEZE. BEAUT BEAUT can be spotted just behind the main speed from barrier 1.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)