R2 CASSIA HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M10) - Wednesday, 10 October 2018

19:45 HK TIME

summary


I see there being quite a bit of speed in this event and some of it has drawn high, so an economical run in transit is key. THE SHOW and ROOKIE STAR are the two runners that should map nicely and each promotes some interest based on their recent form. The Show drops back to 1200m but has had a trial since and went nicely enough. He is likely to be attractive odds. Rookie Star just peaked on his run first-up and then failed when a beaten favourite on the dirt. He deserves another chance based on his best ratings compared to others here. NOBLE DE BOY posted the fourth-best final-400m at the September 5 meeting (2) and isn’t out of it, especially if the pace is as strong as I expect it might be up front. OTOUTO is third up and can run well, although his strike rate of one from 26 is somewhat concerning. I don’t like the early favourite Regency Honey at all; he sits a lot longer in my 100% market compared to his price in early betting.

selections


7 THE SHOW

(rp – $4.80)

1st DH @ $3.80 & $2.40 ($4.25 best corporate)

3 ROOKIE STAR

(rp – $5.00)

9th

2 OTOUTO

(rp – $6.50)

10th

1 NOBLE DE BOY

(rp – $8.00)

5th

strategy


7 THE SHOW

WIN (small units)

3 ROOKIE STAR

WIN (small units)

speed


I see there being more pace in this race than many might expect. OTOUTO can be ridden for speed and a couple of runners that are drawn out like FIRST BEAUT and IDYLLIC WIND might be asked to punch forward. THE SHOW maps well from his draw as does ROOKIE STAR.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)