R1 BEGONIA HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M10) - Wednesday, 10 October 2018

19:15 HK TIME

summary


There is not a great deal of speed in this event and Vincent Ho on PO CHING TREASURE might be able to dictate the pace to suit. The horse went far too hard first-up this preparation, in a race that has worked out quite well (Full Of Chances has won since), however, he doesn’t exactly win out of turn. The most progressive runner in the race is HAPPY SEBRING, who is capable of reeling off a good closing sectional. I have two concerns however, the lack of pace and pressure in the race and Happy Valley. I wasn’t that taken with Happy Sebring’s trial at the city circuit and he seems a risk for me, so there should be some options to have a wager against him in this event. KING OF MONGOLIA has had two starts in the class for a win and his lead up trial was sound work. I like that the blinkers are going back on him. SAVANNAH WIND was huge when storming home at his seasonal reappearance and the step up to 1800m will suit. It is a tricky race but with a vulnerable favourite (in my opinion) it’s worth taking some small outlays around him, structured around my prices and the market.

selections


10 PO CHING TREASURE

(rp – $4.20)

1st @ $5.35 & $1.90 ($6.50 best corporate)

1 KING OF MONGOLIA

(rp – $4.80)

6th

9 SAVANNAH WIND

(rp – $7.50)

2nd @ $3.60p (quinella with 10 @ $32.80)

3 HAPPY SEBRING

(rp – $6.00)

5th

strategy


10 PO CHING TREASURE

WIN (small units)

1 KING OF MONGOLIA

WIN (small units)

9 SAVANNAH WIND

WIN (smallest units)

speed


There isn’t expected to be much pace here with PO CHING TREASURE the likely leader. KING OF MONGOLIA can position close-up and I expect that ISHVARA might be ridden to take closer order.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)