best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M10) - Wednesday, 10 October 2018

35 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 8

9 RIGHT HONOURABLE (rp – $2.80)

WIN (7 units)

I was very impressed with the nature of RIGHT HONOURABLE’S win last start. He maps well today to be given every opportunity to win again, assuming he races at least to the level of his previous run. Zac Purton rides and he looks ready to win in this class now.

Result: 3rd (-7 units)

best each way


RACE 7

4 SAUL’S SPECIAL (rp – $3.00)

WIN (3 units) & PLACE (6 units)

3 with 4

QUINELLA (1 unit)

SAUL’S SPECIAL rates very well for this event, but has a tricky draw to overcome that I believe may be curbing his market support. I believe he can overcome this given my read of the speed in the race and where Zac Purton can position him. I expect GUNNISON to start favourite and the two horses shape as a strong quinella proposition.

Result: 1st @ $5.50 & $2.00 best corporate (+11.5 units)(+6 units) +  4th (-1 unit) -> (+16.5 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 3

4 ALL YOU KNOW (rp – $3.20)

WIN (4.5 units)

3 UNIVERSAL GO GO (rp – $4.00)

WIN (3.5 units)

Two leading chances in race 3 are ALL YOU KNOW and UNIVERSAL GO GO. The former maps a lot better tonight than he did at his previous start and should get one of the runs of the race. The latter takes a big step up in distance, but races and is bred to be suited by this and I think might be asked to lead from his handy barrier.

Result: 2nd (-4.5 units) + 3rd (-3.5 units) -> (-8 units)

RACE 6

8 DOUBLE VALENTINE (rp – $3.60)

WIN (4 units)

5 JADE THEATRE (rp – $3.80)

WIN (3.5 units)

This is another event where the two runners I rate as clearly the top two chances look backable, DOUBLE VALENTINE and JADE THEATRE. Double Valentine is rated narrowly the better chance because of where I have him mapping, but Jade Theatre isn’t really an inferior horse on pure ability. Both though, should run well.

Result: 6th (-4 units) + 2nd (-3.5 units) -> (-7.5 units)

RACE 5

9 NICE KICK (rp – $6.00)

WIN (1.5 units)

1 FLYING MONKEY (rp – $9.00)

WIN (1 unit)

NICE KICK had excuses given the rather ordinary ride he received last start. With improved fitness and a better passage he can be a factor at a super early price. FLYING MONKEY is drawn wide and is at an early price that I expect to see shorten up, It’s simply too big given his ability, and whilst the barrier isn’t good, achieving a win from there is far from insurmountable.

Result: 4th (-1.5 units) + 12th (-1 unit) -> (-2.5 units)

Overall result for 35 unit strategy


-8.5 UNITS  (24% LOSS)

It was a a typical night at the Valley, with a bevy of close finishes, some of which went our way and some of which didn’t. It was another reminder of this being a long term game, as the form has been running solidly without racing luck/variability quite clicking.

Right Honourable got into a very tricky spot down the back and even though the pace was okay overall, it was a little stop and start. That said he was produced in the straight and didn’t quite punch through as well as The Judge.

Purton produced a strong tactical steer to get Saul’s Special up by a narrow margin. We got the ride and the head-bob along with the each way price we were after there. I must say I didn’t expect him to be quite that positive on him, however  it worked nicely.

Second and third placings for other key strategy outlays meant a small loss on the night overall for that, although there were other good returns including the very first race which can be viewed here.

Look out for my Sweet In Defeat report on last Sunday at Sha Tin and please note that this weekend it is a Saturday meeting in Hong Kong, which means there’s a lot on with Guineas Day at Caulfield and the Everest at Randwick!

Talk soon.

Cheers

 

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)