R7 LARCH HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M9) - Sunday, 7 October 2018

16:05 HK TIME

summary


There seems plenty of speed in this event with MYTHICAL EMPEROR taking part. His recent trial was sound and his pattern is to roll at good to fast sectionals on the lead, however, he is a hard one to catch, with only three wins from 31 starts in Hong Kong. GOLDEN DASH should appreciate the step up in trip and maps nicely. He will be fitter for his run when second to Goko over 1000m four weeks ago. Fitness could be the query for VOYAGE KING who won well at the end of last season. The issue is that his recent trial (albeit on the all-weather) wasn’t great. Positives are that Zac Purton rides and he’s well drawn to get an economical trip even though it could be amongst the second half of runners. If they take a sit with ENDEARING, he too can run well and HIGH FIVE should be powering home again in a tricky race. It’s tough to find a decent “over” and I won’t recommend a specific outlay now, rather use my prices against the market as it takes better shape.

selections


5 GOLDEN DASH

(rp – $3.80)

4th

2 VOYAGE KING

(rp – $4.50)

6th

1 HIGH FIVE

(rp – $6.00)

1st @ $7.15 & $2.00 (promoted from second)

7 ENDEARING

(rp – $6.50)

2nd @ $2.40p (relegated from first, quinella with 1 @ $24.60)

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

Monitor prices

speed


MYTHICAL EMPEROR can run along here at a strong speed overall. ENDEARING and GOKO can both work into handy spots. MIGHTY MAVERICK is drawn a touch awkwardly but might slot in if GOLDEN DASH doesn’t kick up and the speed is slower than my forecast.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)