R1 BIRCH HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M9) - Sunday, 7 October 2018

13:00 HK TIME

summary


There is not a great deal of speed in this event on paper which maps it rather tricky for CHIU CHOW KID, however he still rates as my top selection for the race. He didn’t get the tempo to suit at his last outing, which potentially highlights an issue he faces today, but was sound in running second to Amazing Gold. The move back to Sha Tin is a positive and when the sprint goes on, hopefully he won’t be giving away too much of a start. WONDERFUL CHASER comes through the same race (48) and had a marginally better final-200m on that occasion. He maps to potentially sit a pair or two closer to the lead in the running, which could be telling in the finish. PROUD SKY has had the benefit of two runs this season and maps nicely this time too, his last run rated well enough to go close here. CLEMENT LEGEND has no early speed but might be a touch of overs and will be working home well late. That said, his run pattern makes him very vulnerable to races that are run slowly through out. Chiu Chow Kid is the horse to beat, but the right price is important. A conservative play is to take my first three selections in a small unit boxed quinella or take small units to win on Chiu Chow Kid.

 

From Sweet In Defeat:

CHIU CHOW KID

selections


2 CHIU CHOW KID

(rp – $2.80)

3rd @ $1.35p

5 WONDERFUL CHASER

(rp – $5.50)

9th

3 PROUD SKY

(rp – $5.50)

8th

12 CLEMENT LEGEND

(rp – $14.00)

2nd @ $3.05p

strategy


2 CHIU CHOW KID

WIN (4 units)

speed


The overall tempo looks SLOW here with DAZZLE WINNER, WONDERFUL CHASER and PROUD SKY potential leaders. It might be that another rider will be instructed to push forward early, with there also being the potential for a mid-race move.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)