best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M8) - Wednesday, 3 October 2018

38 units Strategy

best outlay


RACE 7

5 INSAYSHABLE (rp – $2.40)

WIN (8 units)

INSAYSHABLE resumes having run second in track-record time at his last start last season. He maps ideally and if he can return and deliver anywhere near the quality of that second behind Glorious Forever then he should win.

Result: 1st @ $2.20 best corporate (+9.6 units)

BEST EACH WAY


RACE 6

5 ZERO HEDGE (rp – $4.50)

WIN (3 units) & PLACE (5 units)

5 with 1 & 8

QUINELLA (1 unit each, 2 units total)

ZERO HEDGE is another Size-trained horse that rates highly compared with the other runners he’ll meet tonight. With a positive barrier ride he should be able to position to advantage and looks a perfect each way price. E-SUPER and BEAUTY LOYAL can run well and the quinella option with Zero Hedge holds value and appeal.

Results: 7th (-3 units)(-5 units) + (-2 units) -> (-10 units)

Next Best Outlays


RACE 4

2 POWERMAX (rp – $3.00)

WIN (6 units)

5 THOU SHALL SING (rp – $4.00)

WIN (4.5 units)

POWERMAX and THOU SHALL SING rate clearly as the two hardest horses to beat in the fourth event. I expect they’ll be well-backed through out the night, so lock in prices if you can that are above my rated prices.

Results: 2nd @ (-6 units) + 3rd @ (-4.5 units) -> (-10.5 units)

RACE 2

6 FAITHFUL TRINITY (rp – $3.40)

WIN (5 units)

There isn’t much between the chances of NAMJONG PLUS and FAITHFUL TRINITY in the second race, however the early market has quite the disparity. I’m happy to back Faithful Trinity therefore and believe he can win again.

Result: 6th (-5 units)

Next best each way


RACE 5

6 THE CREATETH (rp – $5.00)

WIN (1.5 units) & PLACE (3 units)

THE CREATETH presents as a strong chance in a very competitive event. I wouldn’t go overboard backing him, but he looks the right price to be fighting out the finish and should be an improver for John Moore.

Result: 2nd @ $3.80p best corporate (-1.5 units) + (+8.4 units) -> (+6.9 units)

Overall result for 38 unit strategy


-9 UNITS  (23.7% LOSS)

Zac Purton was hero and villain tonight at the Valley! He delivered a quite brilliant ride on my best of the night Insayshable to win the seventh race. Again, the $2.20 price obtained was less than my rated price, so there’s a heap of money being placed on Zac’s top mounts, which is making finding the “right” price a challenge, but it’s another best home.

Purton turned villain in some respects when rode Mr Picasso to beat The Createth in race 5. The Createth opened a superb $13.00 & $3.80 with the corporates and was smashed in betting accordingly and missed by a neck margin from getting it done.

Powermax and Thou Shall Sing both ran well, but were just pipped by Flying Force late in the race. It was a visually extraordinary win from Flying Force and he was considered a strong contender, but I felt the map might be against him tonight. He overcame that and highlighted a red hot Sweet In Defeat review of Happy Valley (M2). Entered into that SID “Black Book” were four runners who have all won at their next starts:

Country Star: 1st @ $2.40

Flying Force: 1st @ $12.85

Red Warrior: 1st @ $2.50

Land Grant: 1st @ $3.55

Speaking of maps, on first look I underestimated the overall speed of race 6 and this contributed to finding out the fitness fresh-up of Zero Hedge. I’ll assess the race further and give more thoughts via Sweet In Defeat on Monday.

So overall a night where a small percentage was lost, with a couple of typical Happy Valley margins not going our way. Long term for the season I really like the shape of the form, so that should even out for us.

Join me for racing at Sha Tin on Sunday!

 

Cheers

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)