R8 THE CELEBRATION CUP (G3 HANDICAP)

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Sha Tin (M7) - Monday, 1 October 2018

16:40 HK TIME

summary


This is a very good race laden with Group1 performers, but they are all resuming with much bigger targets later in the season and my experience tells me it is better to use it for “intel” going forward. BEAUTY GENERATION has the weight to carry but he can lead and will take some running down if allowed any leeway up front. I think PING HAI STAR is a big chance, he probably had enough at the end of last campaign but his figures prior to that were off the charts and he will measure up to the top grade. In addition 56kg to carry is a weight that post-race could look luxurious. FIFTY FIFTY maps very well, and has two wins and as many placings from four starts over the course and distance. He looked forward in a recent trial albeit he was asked for more than most of his competitors. NOTHINGILIKEMORE doesn’t stay, so I am not going to read too much in to his Derby campaign and back to this trip, in a fresh state, I expect that he will run well. I won’t be recommending outlaying too much here, but I’m happy that small outlays on Ping Hai Star and Nothingilikemore are warranted.

selections


8 PING HAI STAR

(rp – $4.50)

2nd @ $2.60p (quinella with 1 @ $22.20)

11 NOTHINGILIKEMORE

(rp – $5.00)

5th

1 BEAUTY GENERATION

(rp – $6.00)

1st @ $4.35 & $1.70 ($5.00 best corporate)

5 FIFTY FIFTY

(rp – $6.50)

9th

strategy


8 PING HAI STAR

WIN (small units)

11 NOTHINGILIKEMORE

WIN (small units)

speed


I expect that the pace should be GOOD here with CALIFORNIA WHIP and BEAUTY GENERATION sharing the main speed. FIFTY FIFTY is drawn to sit just behind this pair with HORSE OF FORTUNE not far away. The leaders are unlikely to be pressured, but should still roll at an even tempo through out.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)