best selections and strategies
Sha Tin (M7) - Monday, 1 October 2018
31 units Strategy
best outlays
RACE 9
5 SUPERICH (rp – $2.40)
WIN (8.5 units)
5 with 11
QUINELLA (1 unit)
5 with 6
QUINELLA (0.5 unit)
SUPERICH was outstanding when he won at the end of last season, with the rating generated making him the clear horse to beat in race 9. Coupled with the booking of Zac Purton and a map that should work out favourably for him he is the best of the day. There looks some value in the quinellas with TEAM SPIRIT and SUMSTREETSUMWHERE, who should both run well too.
Result: 1st @ $2.10 best corporate (+9.35 units) + 10th (-1 unit) + 4th (-0.5 unit) -> (+7.85 units)
BEST EACH WAY
RACE 3
9 MONKEY JEWELLERY (rp – $3.50)
WIN (3 units) PLACE (6 units)
I have very much liked what I’ve seen from MONKEY JEWELLERY in his work and trials in preparation for his debut today. The ISG has drawn barrier 12 and Size has opted for Sam Clipperton to ride (he’s also ridden Monkey Jewellery in all four trials), which appears to have helped the price he’s at, thus making him a more appealing “back”.
Result: 3rd @ $5.00p (-3 units)(+24 units) -> (+21 units)
NEXT BEST OUTLAYS
RACE 10
10 RAGING STORM (rp – $4.80)
WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)
RAGING STORM showed Class 2 winning potential last term and in a fresh state can run a super race at good odds this afternoon. I think the booking of Alberto Sanna will suit him as a quiet ride early could really allow this galloper to deliver a race-winning sprint late.
Result: 9th (-2 units)(-4 units) -> (-6 units)
RACE 5
14 AEROHAPPINESS (rp – $2.60)
WIN (4.5 units)
12 ULTIMATE GLORY (rp – $6.50)
WIN (1.5 units)
Although previously costly, I found enough excuses for AEROHAPPINESS last start to say it’s worth giving him another chance today. He’s up in distance and has drawn ideally to work to the front more easily and dominate the race from there. ULTIMATE GLORY rates well and is too big a price to go around at without having “a little something” on him.
Result: 12th (-4.5 units) + 5th (-1.5 units) -> (-6 units)
Overall result for 31 unit strategy
+16.85 UNITS (54% PROFIT)
Wow, we saw some stunning performances to the eye this afternoon and some superb riding by Zac Purton who picked up four winners including having success with our best bet Superich. This capped a profitable meeting.
Ironically it was that ride which was fraught with most danger and Superich himself showed he was too good for Class 3. Sitting wide over 1200m and still winning is not an easy thing to do at Sha Tin, so it was an excellent win. He didn’t ever get out to the price we marked, which meant we took unders at a widely available $2.10 price, however, we got away with the mark.
John Size had an up and down day, with some mixed results, but I’m sure, even though he didn’t win, he would’ve been pleased with Monkey Jewellery’s debut. He charged home late to place at $5.00 and what numbers he throws up in my Sweet In Defeat review (out on Thursday) will be interesting.
Hot King Prawn and Ivictory were Size’s main highlights along with the return of Ping Hai Star, but two major disappointments were Aerohappiness and Raging Storm. Certainly the incident report for the former will be closely read and I’ll report the findings, whilst Raging Storm was never allowed to travel comfortably at all during the running, which doesn’t suit him at all.
*Updated 02/10/18: From Incident Report Race 5:
A veterinary inspection of AEROHAPPINESS immediately following the race including an endoscopic examination showed a substantial amount of blood in the horse’s trachea. The performance of AEROHAPPINESS was considered unacceptable. Before being allowed to race again, AEROHAPPINESS will be required to perform to the satisfaction of the Stewards in a barrier trial and be subjected to an official veterinary examination.
Outside of the main strategy there was plenty of good stuff race-by-race for subscribers, including two top quinellas in race 2 and race 6, plus the reads of the G3 features through up more of the same!
There is some top racing to come and I look forward to turning over more profitable days. Long term profit is the goal.
We’re on the quick back-up with Happy Valley on Wednesday. I’ll be locked and loaded for then though, so make sure you’re with me on Hutchi’s Honkers!
Cheers
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)