R1 BOSTON HANDICAP

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Sha Tin (M5) - Saturday, 22 September 2018

13:00 HK TIME

summary


The first event on the all-weather (AWT) is a pretty standard affair for this grade, but given it is on the all-weather, I am happy to watch it. The AWT rides differently at various times of the year and the prevailing climate also has an impact; it is very much a surface that you have to wait and see how it is playing (in my experience) to make it worthwhile. Therefore it’s not prudent being too locked-in to a strategy this far out from the race itself (the turf track with past information on each rail position is far more reliable for ascertaining potential patterns). As a general rule I present my analysis based on a ‘normal’ AWT surface, so here’s my read on it and prices below:

 

Rookie trainer Jimmy Ting is enjoying a phenomenal start to his training career and the manner in which FLYING GODSPELL went in a recent trial on this surface was most encouraging. The market at this early stage is arguably ‘over-playing’ some of Ting’s gallopers, but Flying Godspell is a deserved favourite. DASHING GAINER will find a prominent position quite easily and he handles the surface well. LIGHTNING STEED competes on this surface for the first time but was sound fresh-up racing down the straight, and he will strip fitter for that. JUST NOT LISTENING can win this event based on his final run last term on this surface. He was slow away there and worked hard early, but the race rated okay with Mickey Rich coming out of that event and winning since.

selections


6 FLYING GODSPELL

(rp – $2.80)

8th

5 JUST NOT LISTENING

(rp – $5.50)

1st @ $7.20 & $2.25 (best corporate $10.00!)

1 DASHING GAINER

(rp – $6.50)

3rd @ $2.10p

3 LIGHTNING STEED

(rp – $12.00)

11th

strategy


NO OUTLAY RECOMMENDED

Use my rated prices as you wish.

speed


DASHING GAINER can lead this race at a GOOD tempo from KING MORTAR and LIGHTNING STEED. FLYING GODSPELL is well drawn to get an ideal run ahead of FLYING NOBLE.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)