best selections and strategies


Happy Valley (M4) - Wednesday, 12 September 2018

30 units Strategy

best outlays


RACE 4

2 VICTORY POWER (rp – $2.80)

WIN (7 units)

2 with 5 & 6

(1 unit each, 2 units total)

VICTORY POWER enters the fourth event having had a run under his belt this season, which was a decent enough second down the Sha Tin straight. Purton will give Victory Power every chance from barrier one, with a couple of horses also at good prices that are Quinella options; EMPIRE STAR and FANTASTIC FABIO.

Result: 6th (-7 units)(-2 units) -> (-9 units)

Best Each Way


RACE 8

4 TURIN REDSTAR (rp – $3.80)

WIN (4 units) & PLACE (6 units)

TURIN REDSTAR looks an outstanding each way bet at a great price in the last race. I’m happy to back him from what looks like a tough barrier on the face of things, but given the map a spot that shouldn’t be such a drama and therefore giving us better odds than might otherwise be the case.

Result: 2nd @ $2.80p best corporate (-4 units)(+10.8 units) -> (+6.8 units)

NEXT BEST OUTLAYS


RACE 7

6 SPEEDY KING (rp – $4.00)

WIN (3.5 units)

3 SHANGHAI MASTER (rp – $5.00)

WIN (3 units)

In many respects I’m taking a stand against Eighty Eighty (who I have as under the odds), with SPEEDY KING and SHANGHAI MASTER. I’m happy with the form of both horses from last term, and I think they can run well at good prices in a fresh state.

Result: 12th (-3.5 units) + 7th (-3 units) -> (-6.5 units)

RACE 5

9 MEGATRON (rp – $6.50)

WIN (2.5 units)

7 SPARKLING SWORD (rp – $7.00)

WIN (2 units)

The map I have shaped suggests that MEGATRON and SPARKLING SWORD will be advantaged compared to others and therefore both look like good “backs”. They are last-start winners who can fight each other for one more in the grade tonight.

Result: 7th (-2.5 units) + 3rd (-2 units) -> (-4.5 units)

Overall result for 30 unit strategy


-13.2 UNITS  (44% LOSS)

It was an evening that delivered some super results combined with some frustrating ones for the overall Best Selections and Strategies.

Firstly the best bet Victory Power may have looked disappointing on the face of things, but the race certainly didn’t play out in a predictable manner. Fantastic Fabio and Umberto Rispoli unusually “half-committed” to lead at a slow pace before quickly handing-up to Ambitious Heart (Alberto Sanna), thus snookering Zac Purton and Victory Power three-back on the fence. The tempo was slowed and that didn’t suit our best bet at all. There were some notes about race 4 in the Incident Report which make for interesting reading.

Turin Redstar ran very well given he had to work harder than anticipated to get across from his draw. Plenty got great each way odds through out the day and he was understandably crunched late into favouritism. Circuit Glory got the run of the race and won like he threatened to do a few times last season.

In race 5 Megatron was poorly rated and Sparkling Sword ran “big” given the work he had to do in the running. In the seventh race Eighty Eighty was too good after receiving a classic Purton ride. Speedy King finished last but clipped heels when about to be presented and that was the end of his chances. He’s a horse to keep an eye on as he was in the contest until then.

Race 2 delivered a super result for each way players when Mickey Rich charged home to win. He was widely available at $13.00 with most leading corporates leading into the race and closed double-figures the tote.

In the sixth event, Keep Moving gave backers a result at a price too when Victor Wong guided him home. 

So a night that was good overall, even though posting a loss on the main strategy there were plenty of sweet results for you who pay your hard-earned for my analysis – thanks for the feedback, good, not so, and light-hearted!

Racing at Sha Tin is scheduled for Sunday, even though Typhoon Mangkhut is bearing down on the region. So this means there’s a chance the meeting could be cancelled and rescheduled. If it is, then anyone who buys Sunday’s analysis will have credit added accordingly and for VIPs the meeting will be rescheduled later in the season.

Look out for my Sweet In Defeat review of Happy Valley, where my initial thoughts will be reinforced or challenged by my assessment of the sectional numbers of the meeting!

 

Cheers

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)