best selections and strategies

Sha Tin (M3) - Sunday, 9 September 2018

26 Units Strategy

best outlay


11 AEROHAPPINESS (rp – $1.80)

WIN (12 units)

AEROHAPPINESS should probably be unbeaten in two starts, but nevertheless looks a typically progressive John Size-trained horse. He’s drawn to get the ideal run in the race and with a light weight to carry for this higher-graded event he is clearly the best bet on the card.

Result: 3rd (-12 units)

next best outlays


5 SMART CHARADE (rp – $3.20)

WIN (4.5 units)


WIN (1 unit)

9 THE FULL BLOOM (rp – $9.00)

WIN (0.5 unit)

There are three horses that present as excellent “overs” in race 7, SMART CHARADE, ELECTRIC LIGHTNING and THE FULL BLOOM. Smart Charade is the best chance and with even luck can do the job on the “back up”. Electric Lightning and The Full Bloom can both run a lot better than market expectation given my ratings.

Result: 8th (-4.5 units) + 4th (-1 unit) + 10th (-0.5 unit) -> (-6 units)

best each way


5 CITY LEGEND (rp – $4.20)

WIN (3 units) & PLACE (5 units)

CITY LEGEND comes up against Pakistan Friend, and he showed when delivering compelling sectionals on the same day last season as his main rival that he was capable of matching him. He’s priced to be a strong each way outlay with Zac Purton set to ride him.

Result: 2nd @ $2.25 best corporate (-3 units)(+11.25 units) -> (+3.25 units)

Overall result for 26 unit strategy

-14.75 UNITS  (56.7% LOSS)

The day presented as a challenging one and unfortunately the best selections didn’t receive the best their jockeys could deliver today, but there were some good results within the wider analysis all the same!

Romantic Touch ran very well at odds and was selected as the mostly likely horse to upset Rattan. The quinella option with the two was taken by a few savvy subscribers.

The third race also provided a sweet result with a small over offered up by corporates on Circuit Number Two.

Endearing was well-backed to win fifth and delivered. He wasn’t any spoils but the win is on the board.

Our main outlay, Aerohappiness missed the start and then burned a lot of energy at the wrong time in the race when he was hunted forward. In the finish the damage was done and although he beat home Handsome Bo Bo, he was run over by horses that had softer runs in behind. Aerohappiness will keep though and may be looking for a touch further already – time will tell.

Zac Purton gave City Legend a great ride to the straight, but just left his run too late and was beaten by Hinyuen Swiftness. He appeared to be swinging off his galloper turning in, but a narrow second was the result. He was well-backed late, so it was hard for many who were looking at bet slips that had $7.50 & $2.55 fixed on them! It highlights another fact of Hong Kong racing, that horses in general are so tightly handicapped that timing, inches and a little luck are everything – the difference between winning and not. Those cliches are best illustrated in the cauldron of #HKRacing.

Race 7 was forgettable in that The Full Bloom had zero luck being caught wide on a hot speed, with Smart Charade being a part of burning way too fast in front. Jockey Wong got the tempo very wrong on Smart Charade. Electric Lightning got a great sit just off the leaders, but inexplicably was taken to the inside behind soon to be tiring runners and had his momentum stalled. He would’ve certainly gone close to winning; a moot point.

Make sure you keep tabs on Hutchi’s Honkers for the posting of my Sweet In Defeat review of today. I’ll have a more in-depth look with the help of replays and sectional times with the aim of adding some more horses to our “black book” of runners to follow.

Also join me for Happy Valley racing this Wednesday night!


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