R7 DEEP WATER BAY HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M2) - Wednesday, 5 September 2018

2:20 HK TIME

summary


This is a race where Zac Purton has a solid chance aboard SKY MELODY at a price close to making him backable. Whilst it is the early favourite, I expect that it will tend towards where I’ve marked it ($2.80) by race-start time. He has been costly for us (irregular heart rhythm last start) but of course he has also had his excuses. However, his recent trial was sound and he does look clearly the best chance to win this race. What should help is that there is genuine speed in this event with MULTIGOGO, LAND GRANT and CLOUD NINE amongst those likely to go forward. Multigogo has won 4/5 at Happy Valley and merits respect again, particularly if those on-pace and close to the rail are advantaged on the night. And that would be a case in point for Land Grant. Not much appeals outside of those three, but primarily Sky Melody.

selections


8 SKY MELODY

(rp – $2.80)

1st @ $2.00 & $1.20 ($2.70 best corporate)

7 MULTIGOGO

(rp – $6.50)

9th

2 LAND GRANT

(rp – $6.00)

3rd @ $2.15p

strategy


8 SKY MELODY

WIN (monitor price)

speed


The pace will be genuine here with LAND GRANT, MULTIGOGO and CLOUD NINE contesting for early lead positions. LUCKY GIRL might be able to find forward position and I expect THUNDER STOMP to travel in a perfect place behind the leaders on the rail.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)