R2 SOUTH BAY HANDICAP

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Happy Valley (M2) - Wednesday, 5 September 2018

23:45 HK TIME

summary


The booking of Champion Jockey Zac Purton is going to result in a number of runners he rides starting a lot shorter than they should in the market and that might be the case here with SNOWHOOVES. Whilst he will map well and goes okay on the turf, he is a lot better on the all-weather. In addition, let’s not forget that he is a well-exposed 8-year-old! STARLOT and YOUNG DREAMER look to be better options here, especially going by their early prices. The former went very well in a recent trial, has the blinkers re-applied and looks ready to perform. He has only won 1/22 but can get the job done at just his third start in this class. Young Dreamer will more than likely make the running, and his recent barrier trial was sound work. He also has the advantage of the claim of Victor Wong (4.5kg). There was less than half a length between Young Dreamer and NOBLE DE BOY when they clashed in June, with the latter posting the second-best final-600m of the race (34.62). Whilst it’s not a race where we’ll play “heavy” (in fairness it’s not a race card that you should play “heavy”), the favourite looks vulnerable so I recommend small outlays to win on Starlot and Young Dreamer. ROOKIE STAR might have been a play as well had he drawn better, as the blinkers look a positive addition. He’s just unlikely to get the run that he needs.

selections


4 STARLOT

(rp – $4.50)

5th

5 YOUNG DREAMER

(rp – $5.50)

3rd @ $1.85p (trifecta/tierce with 6 & 8 @ $507.20)

8 SNOWHOOVES

(rp – $6.00)

2nd @ $1.25p (quinella with 6 @ $30.35)

6 NOBLE DE BOY

(rp – $8.50)

1st @ $25.20 & $5.40 ($31.00 best corporate!!)

2 ROOKIE STAR

(rp – $9.00)

4th (first four/quartet with 6, 8 & 5 @ $3,581.30)

strategy


4 STARLOT

WIN (small units)

5 YOUNG DREAMER

WIN (small units)

speed


Another race where the pace doesn’t look like it will be faster than GOOD. YOUNG DREAMER appears like he’ll be the leader from IDYLLIC WIND. STARLOT and SNOWHOOVES should be the best positioned of the rest from their barrier draws.

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)