best selections and strategies
Happy Valley (M2) - Wednesday, 5 September 2018
24 Units Strategy
best outlay
RACE 3
5 COUNTRY STAR (rp – $2.50)
WIN (7 units)
John Size debuts a well-trialled son of Strarcraft in the third event with Zac Purton taking the ride (and taking over the trialing) from the now Japan-domiciled Joao Moreira. COUNTRY STAR has looked good in those trials and meets a weak line up here. It looks a shrewd piece of Size-placement to try and secure an early mark.
Result: 4th DH (-7 units)
next best outlays
RACE 4
1 WINNING SUPREME (rp – $4.20)
WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)
1 with 8
QUINELLA (1 unit)
1 with 8
QUINELLA PLACE / DUET (2 units)
WINNING SUPREME is priced very big given at his best he rates the highest horse in this event. The apprentice claim is a benefit and if he finds the front as mapped he’ll be hard to run down. CAPTAIN BOSS will also run well and a Quinella/Quinella Place (Duet) can be taken with these two runners.
Result: 3rd @ $2.20p (best corporate) (-2 units)(+4.8 units) + 5th (-1 unit)(-2 units) -> (-0.2 units)
RACE 6
6 HARBOUR ALERT (rp – $5.00)
WIN (2.5 units)
8 EAGLE (rp – $5.00)
WIN (2.5 units)
There are two runners I’m happy to bet on ahead of the favourite given their form and prices; HARBOUR ALERT and EAGLE. Both should be able to secure the right runs in the race to get every chance to run to their best.
Result: 6th (-2.5 units) + 1st @ $4.50 best corporate (+11.25 units) -> (+8.75 units)
each way
RACE 8
11 SUPER HOPPY (rp – $5.00)
WIN (1 unit) PLACE (2 units)
Even though on his raw ratings SUPER HOPPY still requires a level to be found for this event, given what I’ve seen he is more than capable of this and is a worthy each way outlay at his price.
Result: 1st @ $6.00 & $2.20 best corporate (+5 units)(+2.4 units) -> (+7.4 units)
Overall result for 24 unit strategy
+8.95 UNITS (37% PROFIT)
At first look the track at the Valley played very fairly, however overall times were very slow compared to standard.
Overall the meeting returned a solid profit without having any luck at all with our best of the night Country Star. Whilst he got back a pair further than anticipated shortly after the start, it was just after turning for home where he got completely squeezed out of his rightful running when about to unleash a winning sprint. That’s racing, he’ll keep and we’ll have to save him for another time.
Winning Supreme ran to expectation. He just had to work a fraction hard to find the lead, but fought to run third by a half-length. Early shoppers did well. Captain Boss wound up late for fifth.
Eagle won in dominant fashion and was very well support late in betting. Those who locked in $4.50 earlier in the day and night were on good terms with each other as he won quite well. Harbour Alert was given a perfect run and in fairness was a little disappointing but might also be an improver for next time.
In the last, it was a typical Happy Valley finish with runs coming from all parts of the track and fortunately the winning one came from Super Hoppy. This was another example of smart players who locked in prices bigger than my “rp” getting benefit as $6.00 was widely available with corps earlier.
Through out the night there were some excellent dividends and there was another reminder of the value of assessing my rate prices (rp) and helping shape your own betting approach in race two. Check out the analysis here.
We’re back racing at Sha Tin on Sunday, so make sure you join me then!
Cheers
Hutchi
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SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:
88
MEETINGS - SEASONS END
2485
TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS
+39.8
UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)