best selections and strategies


Sha Tin (M1) - Sunday, 2 September 2018

22 Units Strategy

best outlays


RACE 8

9 NOBLE STEED (rp – $3.00)

WIN (5.5 units)

9 with 4

QUINELLA (1 unit)

9 with 2

QUINELLA (0.5 unit)

NOBLE STEED presents as the best bet of the opening day of the new Hong Kong season! His form last term was good and he maps to get positive positioning over his main rival VILLA FIONN. Noble Steed has upside and I expect him to win in this class with a light weight. Villa Fionn and GOD OF DRAGON are worth taking in variable unit quinellas with Noble Steed.

Result: 6th (-5.5 units)(-1 unit)(-0.5 unit) -> (-7 units)

next best outlays


RACE 2

8 SPORTS MASTER (rp – $3.20)

WIN (5 units)

SPORTS MASTER comes very close to being the bet of the day, but sits firmly as the “next best”. Champion Jockey Zac Purton will just need a few breaks in the straight, as he’ll likely be positioned midfield during the running. His last start against all his key rivals said that today he can break maiden status.

Result: 2nd (-5 units)

RACE 4

4 MULTIMAX (rp – $5.00)

WIN (2.5 units)

2 NATURAL FLARE (rp – $7.50)

WIN (1.5 units)

The fourth race presents two runners that simply put; I rate better chances than the early markets. MULTIMAX can sit on the speed and has delivered enough in higher quality races than this. NATURAL FLARE caught my eye on more than one occasion last season and with any luck will be winning a Class 5 race at short notice.

Result: 7th (-2.5 units) & 3rd (-1.5 units) -> (-4 units)

Best Each Way


RACE 3

5 JUMBO LUCK (rp – $4.50)

WIN (2 units) PLACE (4 units)

I’d be shocked if the early tote price of JUMBO LUCK holds up, however there’s still scope for him to be a decent each way outlay today. He maps well, rates and profiles nicely and has suggested in work that he is a leading contender to win the Chief Executive’s Cup.

Result: 6th (-2 units)(-4 units) -> (-6 units)

Overall result for 22 unit strategy


-22 UNITS  (100% LOSS)

Well that was certainly not the afternoon of racing one wanted to start the season, that said, it is only meeting 1 of 88! It’s a marathon not a sprint!

My initial thoughts before sectional reviews (and writing Sweet In Defeat):

The best Noble Steed went from a great bet before, to being in trouble very shortly after the start when he missed the kick, was hunted three wide and appeared to work hard to sit outside of the leader in sectionals that seemed too quick. He faded the last 200m as maybe he was entitled too, with Villa Fionn pulling up like he had a vet issue (*update, no abnormalities found, will have to trial to the satisfaction of Stewards before being allowed to race again).

Sports Master was given a perfect ride before the straight by Zac Purton, but was not able to quicken like Le Panache. The latter opened at $10 with corporates before closing at $5.15 the tote, so some traders who use my prices to shop early would have no doubt snapped up some “sweet overs” there.

Natural Flare work a touch too hard early in the race, but stuck on okay. Multimax was taken on through out and didn’t have much left. Without analysing the race in context of the whole card, I anticipate both are worth staying with in a race where the lead positions are less keenly contested.

Jumbo Luck, was another horse that I expected would get an easier run than he did. That said, he never traveled like the winner and was fair overall, but like many on the card will improve with the run.

 

The first Happy Valley meeting is on Wednesday and again my analysis will be free to view! Also check in before then for my “Sweet In Defeat” horses to follow news.

Cheers

SEASON 2017/18 TOTAL STATS:


88

MEETINGS - SEASONS END

2485

TOTAL OUTLAY OF UNITS

+39.8

UNITS (1.6% PROFIT)